QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates and Research Students are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact Chris Colvin (chris.colvin@qub.ac.uk) for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 20-05:
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico
'Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family'
May 2020
We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico
'Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family'
May 2020
We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
No. 20-04:
Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Death, Demography and the Denominator: New Influenza-18 Mortality Estimates for Ireland'
May 2020
Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland’s 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.
Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Death, Demography and the Denominator: New Influenza-18 Mortality Estimates for Ireland'
May 2020
Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland’s 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.
No. 20-03:
Rebecca Stuart
'Monetary Regimes, the Term Structure and Business Cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018'
May 2020
The ability of the term structure (specifically the term spread, or the difference between the long and short ends of the yield curve) to predict economic activity is empirically well-established for the US, but less so for small open economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for this predictive ability. Between 1972-2018, Ireland experienced three monetary regimes: first, the Irish Pound was fixed to Sterling (1972-1979); second the Pound floated in a band when Ireland was a member of the EMS (1979-1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999-2018). Using dynamic probit models and monthly data, I show that the term spread only had predictive power during the second regime, the only one in which the Central Bank of Ireland had any discretion to set interest rates based on domestic conditions.
Rebecca Stuart
'Monetary Regimes, the Term Structure and Business Cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018'
May 2020
The ability of the term structure (specifically the term spread, or the difference between the long and short ends of the yield curve) to predict economic activity is empirically well-established for the US, but less so for small open economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for this predictive ability. Between 1972-2018, Ireland experienced three monetary regimes: first, the Irish Pound was fixed to Sterling (1972-1979); second the Pound floated in a band when Ireland was a member of the EMS (1979-1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999-2018). Using dynamic probit models and monthly data, I show that the term spread only had predictive power during the second regime, the only one in which the Central Bank of Ireland had any discretion to set interest rates based on domestic conditions.
No. 20-02:
Rowena Gray
'Inequality in Nineteenth Century Manhattan: Evidence from the Housing Market'
February 2020
Historical inequality is difficult to measure, especially at the sub-country level and beyond the top income shares. This paper presents new evidence on the level of inequality in Manhattan from 1880 to 1910 using housing rents. Rental prices and characteristics, including geocodable locations, were collected from newspapers and provide extensive geographic coverage of the island, relevant for the overwhelming majority of its population where renting predominated. This provides a measure of consumption inequality at the household level which helps to develop the picture of urban inequality for this period, when income and wealth measures are scarce. For large American cities, but particularly for New York, housing made up a large share of consumption expenditure and its consumption cannot be substituted, so this is a reliable and feasible way to identify the true trends in urban inequality across space and time.
Rowena Gray
'Inequality in Nineteenth Century Manhattan: Evidence from the Housing Market'
February 2020
Historical inequality is difficult to measure, especially at the sub-country level and beyond the top income shares. This paper presents new evidence on the level of inequality in Manhattan from 1880 to 1910 using housing rents. Rental prices and characteristics, including geocodable locations, were collected from newspapers and provide extensive geographic coverage of the island, relevant for the overwhelming majority of its population where renting predominated. This provides a measure of consumption inequality at the household level which helps to develop the picture of urban inequality for this period, when income and wealth measures are scarce. For large American cities, but particularly for New York, housing made up a large share of consumption expenditure and its consumption cannot be substituted, so this is a reliable and feasible way to identify the true trends in urban inequality across space and time.
No. 20-01:
Rowena Gray and Rocco Bowman
'Locating the Manhattan Housing Market: GIS Evidence for 1880-1910'
February 2020
There is a dearth of systematic information about the historical New York City housing market. We present a new sample containing rental price and characteristic data for almost 10,000 Manhattan units which was collected from historical newspapers for the period 1880 to 1910. These units were geolocated to the historical map of Manhattan Island to explore their geographic coverage, using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. We use this new sample to plot the evolution of the location and quality of available Manhattan housing units. This complements existing research on the growth of New York City and the evolution of the ethnic composition of neighborhoods across Census years, as we show information at annual frequency during this time of high growth for the city.
Rowena Gray and Rocco Bowman
'Locating the Manhattan Housing Market: GIS Evidence for 1880-1910'
February 2020
There is a dearth of systematic information about the historical New York City housing market. We present a new sample containing rental price and characteristic data for almost 10,000 Manhattan units which was collected from historical newspapers for the period 1880 to 1910. These units were geolocated to the historical map of Manhattan Island to explore their geographic coverage, using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. We use this new sample to plot the evolution of the location and quality of available Manhattan housing units. This complements existing research on the growth of New York City and the evolution of the ethnic composition of neighborhoods across Census years, as we show information at annual frequency during this time of high growth for the city.
No. 19-08:
Alan Fernihough, and Cormac Ó Gráda
'Across the Sea to Ireland: Return Atlantic Migration before the First World War'
November 2019
Are return migrants ‘losers’ who fail to adapt to the challenges of the host economy, and thereby exacerbate the brain drain linked to emigration? Or are they ‘winners’ whose return enhances the human and physical capital of the home country? These questions are the subject of a burgeoning literature. This paper analyze a new database culled from the 1911 Irish population census to address these issues for returnees to Ireland from North America more than a century ago. The evidence suggests that those who returned had the edge over the population as a whole in terms of human capital, if not also over those who remained abroad.
Alan Fernihough, and Cormac Ó Gráda
'Across the Sea to Ireland: Return Atlantic Migration before the First World War'
November 2019
Are return migrants ‘losers’ who fail to adapt to the challenges of the host economy, and thereby exacerbate the brain drain linked to emigration? Or are they ‘winners’ whose return enhances the human and physical capital of the home country? These questions are the subject of a burgeoning literature. This paper analyze a new database culled from the 1911 Irish population census to address these issues for returnees to Ireland from North America more than a century ago. The evidence suggests that those who returned had the edge over the population as a whole in terms of human capital, if not also over those who remained abroad.
No. 19-07:
Christopher L. Colvin, and Paul Winfree
'Applied History, Applied Economics, and Economic History'
October 2019
As a new field of academic enquiry, applied history has a unique opportunity to learn lessons from other applied fields. In this essay, we set out how we think applied historians can learn from the mistakes of applied economists and economic policymakers in their use, and abuse, of economic theory and economic history. What we call the New Applied History has the potential to improve the way policymaking is conducted. But only if its practitioners understand the power, and limitations, of theory. We apply our ideas to the case of budgetary policymaking in the United States.
Christopher L. Colvin, and Paul Winfree
'Applied History, Applied Economics, and Economic History'
October 2019
As a new field of academic enquiry, applied history has a unique opportunity to learn lessons from other applied fields. In this essay, we set out how we think applied historians can learn from the mistakes of applied economists and economic policymakers in their use, and abuse, of economic theory and economic history. What we call the New Applied History has the potential to improve the way policymaking is conducted. But only if its practitioners understand the power, and limitations, of theory. We apply our ideas to the case of budgetary policymaking in the United States.
No. 19-06:
Liam Kennedy, and Peter M. Solar
'The Famine that Wasn’t? 1799-1801 in Ireland'
October 2019
Strange Times. There were back-to-back harvest failures in 1799-1800, coming fast on the heels of the insurrections of 1798. The result was massive and sustained inflation in food prices. The conundrum is why there was so little excess mortality. Our approach is to begin by discussing the harvest failures of 1799 and 1800, drawing some implications from the price movements of foodstuffs in Ireland and Britain. We then present evidence from our limited sample of parish registers that suggests that excess mortality was probably quite limited, as was the check to births. A further striking feature of the period, and hardly unrelated, was the role of the state. Though heavily absorbed with the “high politics” of the Union, politicians and policy makers took swift and determined action to stave off distress and public disorder. The range and effectiveness of these measures are assessed. We draw attention to a variety of local initiatives to grapple with problems of food scarcity and lack of purchasing power and offer an analytical sketch as to how the relationship between farmers and labourers might have shaped the outcome of the crisis in the countryside. The concluding section reflects on methods of calculating the impact of state-sponsored famine relief – the lives saved in a sense – and argues that a dynamic rather than a static approach is what is required. And second, the limitations of inflated food prices as indicators of famine conditions, at least under certain forms of peasant agriculture, are laid bare. These two sets of argument help unlock the conundrum as to why excess mortality did not give rise to mass mortality under environmental conditions as unpropitious as those of 1800-01. There may be implications here for the understanding of food crises in rural societies with large subsistence sectors elsewhere in the pre-industrial world.
Liam Kennedy, and Peter M. Solar
'The Famine that Wasn’t? 1799-1801 in Ireland'
October 2019
Strange Times. There were back-to-back harvest failures in 1799-1800, coming fast on the heels of the insurrections of 1798. The result was massive and sustained inflation in food prices. The conundrum is why there was so little excess mortality. Our approach is to begin by discussing the harvest failures of 1799 and 1800, drawing some implications from the price movements of foodstuffs in Ireland and Britain. We then present evidence from our limited sample of parish registers that suggests that excess mortality was probably quite limited, as was the check to births. A further striking feature of the period, and hardly unrelated, was the role of the state. Though heavily absorbed with the “high politics” of the Union, politicians and policy makers took swift and determined action to stave off distress and public disorder. The range and effectiveness of these measures are assessed. We draw attention to a variety of local initiatives to grapple with problems of food scarcity and lack of purchasing power and offer an analytical sketch as to how the relationship between farmers and labourers might have shaped the outcome of the crisis in the countryside. The concluding section reflects on methods of calculating the impact of state-sponsored famine relief – the lives saved in a sense – and argues that a dynamic rather than a static approach is what is required. And second, the limitations of inflated food prices as indicators of famine conditions, at least under certain forms of peasant agriculture, are laid bare. These two sets of argument help unlock the conundrum as to why excess mortality did not give rise to mass mortality under environmental conditions as unpropitious as those of 1800-01. There may be implications here for the understanding of food crises in rural societies with large subsistence sectors elsewhere in the pre-industrial world.