QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates and Research Students are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact Chris Colvin (chris.colvin@qub.ac.uk) for more information about the series.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 19-01:
Gareth Campbell, Richard S. Grossman, and John D. Turner
'Before the Cult of Equity: New Monthly Indices of the British Share Market, 1829–1929'
May 2019
This paper presents new monthly capital gains, dividend yield, and total return indices for common equities quoted on British stock exchanges from 1829 to 1929. As well as creating an all-share index, we create a blue-chip index of the 30 largest companies, which we splice to the Financial Times 30 index to create a near-two-century-long (1829-2018) monthly share index. We use the new indices to examine the timing of British business cycles and compare the returns on home and foreign UK investment. We also construct indices for 22 domestic sectors, and calculate CAPM betas for each sector.
Gareth Campbell, Richard S. Grossman, and John D. Turner
'Before the Cult of Equity: New Monthly Indices of the British Share Market, 1829–1929'
May 2019
This paper presents new monthly capital gains, dividend yield, and total return indices for common equities quoted on British stock exchanges from 1829 to 1929. As well as creating an all-share index, we create a blue-chip index of the 30 largest companies, which we splice to the Financial Times 30 index to create a near-two-century-long (1829-2018) monthly share index. We use the new indices to examine the timing of British business cycles and compare the returns on home and foreign UK investment. We also construct indices for 22 domestic sectors, and calculate CAPM betas for each sector.
No. 18-13:
Alan Fernihough and Cormac Ó Gráda
'Population and Poverty in Ireland on the Eve of the Great Famine'
December 2018
The link between demographic pressure and economic conditions in pre-Famine Ireland has long interested economists. This paper re-visits the topic, harnessing the highly disaggregated parish-level data from the 1841 Census of Ireland. Using population per value adjusted acre as a measure of population pressure, our results indicate that on the eve of the Great Famine of 1846{50, population pressure was positively associated with both illiteracy rates and the prevalence of poor quality housing. But while our analysis shows that population pressure was one of the primary factors underpinning pre-Famine poverty,
it also highlights the importance of geography and human agency. A counterfactual computation indicates that had Ireland's population stayed at its 1800 level, this would have led to only modest improvements in literacy and housing.
Alan Fernihough and Cormac Ó Gráda
'Population and Poverty in Ireland on the Eve of the Great Famine'
December 2018
The link between demographic pressure and economic conditions in pre-Famine Ireland has long interested economists. This paper re-visits the topic, harnessing the highly disaggregated parish-level data from the 1841 Census of Ireland. Using population per value adjusted acre as a measure of population pressure, our results indicate that on the eve of the Great Famine of 1846{50, population pressure was positively associated with both illiteracy rates and the prevalence of poor quality housing. But while our analysis shows that population pressure was one of the primary factors underpinning pre-Famine poverty,
it also highlights the importance of geography and human agency. A counterfactual computation indicates that had Ireland's population stayed at its 1800 level, this would have led to only modest improvements in literacy and housing.
No. 18-12:
Stephen D. Billington
'"War, What Is It Good For?" The Industrial Revolution!'
November 2018
Did the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars contribute to the Industrial Revolution? Recent scholarship argues warfare was an important factor in explaining Britain's industrialisation, by encouraging the invention and diffusion of key technologies with military applications. I re-examine this hypothesis by analysing the patenting of military inventions and inventions considered to be economically valuable during the Industrial Revolution. I find war led to a permanent increase in the rate of military and valuable patenting. War likely created a demand for superior military technologies, while increased wartime production led to demands for more valuable technologies, which both stimulated the Industrial Revolution.
Stephen D. Billington
'"War, What Is It Good For?" The Industrial Revolution!'
November 2018
Did the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars contribute to the Industrial Revolution? Recent scholarship argues warfare was an important factor in explaining Britain's industrialisation, by encouraging the invention and diffusion of key technologies with military applications. I re-examine this hypothesis by analysing the patenting of military inventions and inventions considered to be economically valuable during the Industrial Revolution. I find war led to a permanent increase in the rate of military and valuable patenting. War likely created a demand for superior military technologies, while increased wartime production led to demands for more valuable technologies, which both stimulated the Industrial Revolution.
No. 18-11:
Nikita Lychakov
'Government-made Bank Distress: Industrialisation Policies and the Russian Financial Crisis of 1899-1902'
November 2018
How can industrial policies lead to bank distress? In the 1890s, when undergoing rapid state-led industrialisation, the Russian Empire grew by foreign capital inflows into national debt and by state procurement of industrial output. Concurrently, state policies incentivised, but did not compel, commercial banks to finance industry. In 1899, the inflow of foreign capital fell sharply, initiating a financial crisis. Using newly-collected historical data and extensive narrative evidence, I find the banks which experienced greater distress in the crisis had more personal connections to the government officials who were close to the epicentre of policymaking. Moreover, these banks had more personal ties to the companies which had been most-stimulated by state policies to expand production. Taken together, these two findings suggest that national development policies had a destabilising impact on bank performance.
Nikita Lychakov
'Government-made Bank Distress: Industrialisation Policies and the Russian Financial Crisis of 1899-1902'
November 2018
How can industrial policies lead to bank distress? In the 1890s, when undergoing rapid state-led industrialisation, the Russian Empire grew by foreign capital inflows into national debt and by state procurement of industrial output. Concurrently, state policies incentivised, but did not compel, commercial banks to finance industry. In 1899, the inflow of foreign capital fell sharply, initiating a financial crisis. Using newly-collected historical data and extensive narrative evidence, I find the banks which experienced greater distress in the crisis had more personal connections to the government officials who were close to the epicentre of policymaking. Moreover, these banks had more personal ties to the companies which had been most-stimulated by state policies to expand production. Taken together, these two findings suggest that national development policies had a destabilising impact on bank performance.
No. 18-10:
Stephen D. Billington
'Patent Costs and the Value of Inventions: Explaining Patenting Behaviour between England, Ireland and Scotland, 1617-1852'
October 2018
Ascertaining whether patents encourage invention necessitates understanding the incentives inventors respond to. The British patent system prior to its reform in 1852 was cumbersome and expensive. Whether it facilitated or delayed the Industrial Revolution is hotly debated. This paper’s contribution is to examine the incentives to patent, and the characteristics of patentees, by observing the entire population of British patents granted up to the patent reforms of 1852. I find inventors patented widely because they had valuable inventions. Their value was positively associated with the skills and wealth of patentees. Inventors responded to demand-side conditions, and the system’s expense did not hinder invention.
Stephen D. Billington
'Patent Costs and the Value of Inventions: Explaining Patenting Behaviour between England, Ireland and Scotland, 1617-1852'
October 2018
Ascertaining whether patents encourage invention necessitates understanding the incentives inventors respond to. The British patent system prior to its reform in 1852 was cumbersome and expensive. Whether it facilitated or delayed the Industrial Revolution is hotly debated. This paper’s contribution is to examine the incentives to patent, and the characteristics of patentees, by observing the entire population of British patents granted up to the patent reforms of 1852. I find inventors patented widely because they had valuable inventions. Their value was positively associated with the skills and wealth of patentees. Inventors responded to demand-side conditions, and the system’s expense did not hinder invention.