QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, Research Students and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin, for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 24-01:
John Turner
'Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK'
January 2024
As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of UK public companies over the past 300 years. It makes two principal arguments. First, because the separation of ownership and control was one of the rationales for the introduction of the corporate form, we should not be surprised that corporate ownership has generally been diffuse. Second, over time, the way in which owners ensure that managers act in their interests has gradually changed from a system in which shareholders monitored and exercised voice to one where there was more reliance on external forces and exiting ownership.
John Turner
'Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK'
January 2024
As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of UK public companies over the past 300 years. It makes two principal arguments. First, because the separation of ownership and control was one of the rationales for the introduction of the corporate form, we should not be surprised that corporate ownership has generally been diffuse. Second, over time, the way in which owners ensure that managers act in their interests has gradually changed from a system in which shareholders monitored and exercised voice to one where there was more reliance on external forces and exiting ownership.
No. 23-11:
Jason Lennard, Seán Kenny and Emma Horgan
'Banks and the economy: Evidence from the Irish bank strike of 1966'
December 2023
This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counterfactual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance.
Jason Lennard, Seán Kenny and Emma Horgan
'Banks and the economy: Evidence from the Irish bank strike of 1966'
December 2023
This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counterfactual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance.
No. 23-10:
Áine Doran, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature'
December 2023
What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.
Áine Doran, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature'
December 2023
What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.
No. 23-09:
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy and Jack Seddon
'Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74'
September 2023
How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling’s international ‘retirement’. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of ‘muddling through’. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy and Jack Seddon
'Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74'
September 2023
How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling’s international ‘retirement’. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of ‘muddling through’. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
No. 23-08:
Robin J. C. Adams, Michael Aldous, Philip T. Fliers and John D. Turner
'Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century'
August 2023
This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
Robin J. C. Adams, Michael Aldous, Philip T. Fliers and John D. Turner
'Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century'
August 2023
This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
No. 23-07:
Sotiris Kampanelis, Aldo Elizalde and Yannis M. Ioannides
'Songlines'
June 2023
This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly
along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge.
Sotiris Kampanelis, Aldo Elizalde and Yannis M. Ioannides
'Songlines'
June 2023
This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly
along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge.
No. 23-06:
Alan de Bromhead and Kevin O'Rourke
'Should history change the way we think about populism?'
April 2023
This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.
Alan de Bromhead and Kevin O'Rourke
'Should history change the way we think about populism?'
April 2023
This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.
No. 23-05:
Stephen D. Billington and Joe Lane
‘Clause and Effect’: Invention and State Intervention during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars
February 2023
Did the outbreak of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars influence technical change during the Industrial Revolution? We address this question by investigating an instance of state intervention into the market for inventions from 1792-1820: the introduction of a new proviso into British patents compelling inventors to supply the military, and also attracting military inventions from outside the patent system. We present new patent data alongside previously unused archival evidence to argue that the state’s intervention helped direct technical change in Britain. Our evidence provides additional support for the military-demand-induced hypothesis as a credible explanation for Britain’s ongoing industrialisation.
Stephen D. Billington and Joe Lane
‘Clause and Effect’: Invention and State Intervention during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars
February 2023
Did the outbreak of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars influence technical change during the Industrial Revolution? We address this question by investigating an instance of state intervention into the market for inventions from 1792-1820: the introduction of a new proviso into British patents compelling inventors to supply the military, and also attracting military inventions from outside the patent system. We present new patent data alongside previously unused archival evidence to argue that the state’s intervention helped direct technical change in Britain. Our evidence provides additional support for the military-demand-induced hypothesis as a credible explanation for Britain’s ongoing industrialisation.