QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates and Research Students are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact Chris Colvin (chris.colvin@qub.ac.uk) for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 20-09:
David A. Bogle, Christopher Coyle and John D. Turner
'Capital Market Development over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers over Two Centuries'
November 2020
What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and the wider macroeconomic environment was the ultimate determinant of major changes in asset allocation since 1800. Furthermore, when we compare the UK with the United States, we find that regulation played a limited role in shaping the asset portfolios of the UK life assurance industry.
David A. Bogle, Christopher Coyle and John D. Turner
'Capital Market Development over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers over Two Centuries'
November 2020
What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and the wider macroeconomic environment was the ultimate determinant of major changes in asset allocation since 1800. Furthermore, when we compare the UK with the United States, we find that regulation played a limited role in shaping the asset portfolios of the UK life assurance industry.
No. 20-08:
Eoin McLaughlin and Rowena Pecchenino
'Financial Inclusion with Hybrid Organisational Forms: Microfinance, Philanthropy, and the Poor Law in Ireland, c. 1836-1845'
September 2020
The turbulent 1830s saw a sequence of great political and social reforms in the UK. One such reform was the introduction of a locally funded poor law in Ireland. The development of a nascent welfare system in 1838 coincided with a boom in the formation of microfinance institutions in Ireland. The focus of this study is the expansion of a hybrid organisational form, Loan Fund Societies (LFSs), in the ten years prior to the Great Irish Famine of 1845-49. LFSs were legally established with a conflictual structure: balancing acting as commercially viable charitable institutions that were required to provide credit to the deserving poor to enable them to be self-sufficient, while dedicating their “profits” to supporting the indigent poor. This study uses an analytical framework drawing inspiration from institutional logics to explore and better understand Irish microfinance in the early nineteenth century, a period of profound socio-economic and socio-religious change. It seeks to explain the factors that motivated the establishment and de-establishment of microfinance institutions amidst this tumult. Legislative changes in LFS business parameters in 1843 made the tensions between being charitable and commercial sustainability salient and, for some, continued existence untenable.
Eoin McLaughlin and Rowena Pecchenino
'Financial Inclusion with Hybrid Organisational Forms: Microfinance, Philanthropy, and the Poor Law in Ireland, c. 1836-1845'
September 2020
The turbulent 1830s saw a sequence of great political and social reforms in the UK. One such reform was the introduction of a locally funded poor law in Ireland. The development of a nascent welfare system in 1838 coincided with a boom in the formation of microfinance institutions in Ireland. The focus of this study is the expansion of a hybrid organisational form, Loan Fund Societies (LFSs), in the ten years prior to the Great Irish Famine of 1845-49. LFSs were legally established with a conflictual structure: balancing acting as commercially viable charitable institutions that were required to provide credit to the deserving poor to enable them to be self-sufficient, while dedicating their “profits” to supporting the indigent poor. This study uses an analytical framework drawing inspiration from institutional logics to explore and better understand Irish microfinance in the early nineteenth century, a period of profound socio-economic and socio-religious change. It seeks to explain the factors that motivated the establishment and de-establishment of microfinance institutions amidst this tumult. Legislative changes in LFS business parameters in 1843 made the tensions between being charitable and commercial sustainability salient and, for some, continued existence untenable.
No. 20-07:
William Quinn and John D. Turner
'Bubbles in History'
September 2020
Bubbles have become ubiquitous. This ubiquity has stimulated research over the past three decades into bubbles in history. In this article, we provide a systematic overview of research into historical bubbles. Our analysis reveals that there is no coherent approach to the study of bubbles and much of the debate has unhelpfully focussed on the rationality/irrationality dichotomy. We then suggest a new framework for the study of historical bubbles, which helps us understand the causes of bubbles and their economic consequences. We conclude by suggesting ways in which business history can contribute to the study of historical bubbles.
William Quinn and John D. Turner
'Bubbles in History'
September 2020
Bubbles have become ubiquitous. This ubiquity has stimulated research over the past three decades into bubbles in history. In this article, we provide a systematic overview of research into historical bubbles. Our analysis reveals that there is no coherent approach to the study of bubbles and much of the debate has unhelpfully focussed on the rationality/irrationality dichotomy. We then suggest a new framework for the study of historical bubbles, which helps us understand the causes of bubbles and their economic consequences. We conclude by suggesting ways in which business history can contribute to the study of historical bubbles.
No. 20-06:
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico
'COVID-19, Race and Redlining'
July 2020
Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are over-represented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since -- as of June 16, 2020--they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher that their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neighborhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre-treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico
'COVID-19, Race and Redlining'
July 2020
Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are over-represented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since -- as of June 16, 2020--they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher that their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neighborhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre-treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magnified in combination with a higher black share.
No. 20-05:
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico
'Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family'
May 2020
We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico
'Bitter Sugar: Slavery and the Black Family'
May 2020
We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
No. 20-04:
Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Death, Demography and the Denominator: New Influenza-18 Mortality Estimates for Ireland'
May 2020
Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland’s 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.
Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Death, Demography and the Denominator: New Influenza-18 Mortality Estimates for Ireland'
May 2020
Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland’s 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.