QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates and Research Students are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact Chris Colvin (chris.colvin@qub.ac.uk) for more information about the series.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 19-03:
Christopher L. Colvin, and Philip T. Fliers
'Going Dutch: The Management of Monetary Policy in the Netherlands during the Interwar Gold Standard'
July 2019
Under what conditions can policymakers make demonstrably poor policy choices? By providing a new account of monetary policy management in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, we show how policymakers can fail to escape their long-held beliefs and refuse to consider available policy alternatives. Using high-frequency macroeconomic data, we are the first to document that the Netherlands’ policymakers were able to conduct an independent monetary policy in the 1930s. We then show how this independence was squandered on fixing the guilder’s exchange rate, a policy which led only to deflation, trade deficits, corporate bankruptcies and mass unemployment. We explain the government’s policy stance by documenting the beliefs of politicians and central bankers, and then by investigating how business leaders and public intellectuals attempted to influence these beliefs.
Christopher L. Colvin, and Philip T. Fliers
'Going Dutch: The Management of Monetary Policy in the Netherlands during the Interwar Gold Standard'
July 2019
Under what conditions can policymakers make demonstrably poor policy choices? By providing a new account of monetary policy management in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, we show how policymakers can fail to escape their long-held beliefs and refuse to consider available policy alternatives. Using high-frequency macroeconomic data, we are the first to document that the Netherlands’ policymakers were able to conduct an independent monetary policy in the 1930s. We then show how this independence was squandered on fixing the guilder’s exchange rate, a policy which led only to deflation, trade deficits, corporate bankruptcies and mass unemployment. We explain the government’s policy stance by documenting the beliefs of politicians and central bankers, and then by investigating how business leaders and public intellectuals attempted to influence these beliefs.
No. 19-02:
Liam Kennedy
'Afterlives: Testimonies of Irish Catholic Mothers on Infant Death and the Fate of the Unbaptised'
July 2019
Children growing up in the Ireland of the 1950s will have a clear remembrance of a metaphysical space or place known as Limbo. For Catholics, though not Irish Protestants, this formed part of a spiritual cosmos which viewed Heaven and Hell as opposite poles, with Purgatory and Limbo occupying rather vaguely defined intermediate positions. Fast forward to the present day and hardly any of those born in the new millennium will have the slightest notion of what Limbo was (or is). Yet for generations of families, going back to the dawn of Christianity, there was the fear that failing to baptise an infant before death meant that the infant was condemned either to Hell or to a shadowy existence in a place labelled Limbo. Thus the belief, and associated practices such as the prohibition on burying unbaptised bodies in consecrated ground, is one that is replete with emotional, social, theological and gender implications. This study looks at how Irish mothers look back on these beliefs and their own experiences of Limbo, baptism, churching and the disposal of unbaptised babies. It wonders how and why a deep tradition within the Christian world, and Irish society more particularly, should disappear so quickly and so completely.
Liam Kennedy
'Afterlives: Testimonies of Irish Catholic Mothers on Infant Death and the Fate of the Unbaptised'
July 2019
Children growing up in the Ireland of the 1950s will have a clear remembrance of a metaphysical space or place known as Limbo. For Catholics, though not Irish Protestants, this formed part of a spiritual cosmos which viewed Heaven and Hell as opposite poles, with Purgatory and Limbo occupying rather vaguely defined intermediate positions. Fast forward to the present day and hardly any of those born in the new millennium will have the slightest notion of what Limbo was (or is). Yet for generations of families, going back to the dawn of Christianity, there was the fear that failing to baptise an infant before death meant that the infant was condemned either to Hell or to a shadowy existence in a place labelled Limbo. Thus the belief, and associated practices such as the prohibition on burying unbaptised bodies in consecrated ground, is one that is replete with emotional, social, theological and gender implications. This study looks at how Irish mothers look back on these beliefs and their own experiences of Limbo, baptism, churching and the disposal of unbaptised babies. It wonders how and why a deep tradition within the Christian world, and Irish society more particularly, should disappear so quickly and so completely.
No. 19-01:
Gareth Campbell, Richard S. Grossman, and John D. Turner
'Before the Cult of Equity: New Monthly Indices of the British Share Market, 1829–1929'
May 2019
This paper presents new monthly capital gains, dividend yield, and total return indices for common equities quoted on British stock exchanges from 1829 to 1929. As well as creating an all-share index, we create a blue-chip index of the 30 largest companies, which we splice to the Financial Times 30 index to create a near-two-century-long (1829-2018) monthly share index. We use the new indices to examine the timing of British business cycles and compare the returns on home and foreign UK investment. We also construct indices for 22 domestic sectors, and calculate CAPM betas for each sector.
Gareth Campbell, Richard S. Grossman, and John D. Turner
'Before the Cult of Equity: New Monthly Indices of the British Share Market, 1829–1929'
May 2019
This paper presents new monthly capital gains, dividend yield, and total return indices for common equities quoted on British stock exchanges from 1829 to 1929. As well as creating an all-share index, we create a blue-chip index of the 30 largest companies, which we splice to the Financial Times 30 index to create a near-two-century-long (1829-2018) monthly share index. We use the new indices to examine the timing of British business cycles and compare the returns on home and foreign UK investment. We also construct indices for 22 domestic sectors, and calculate CAPM betas for each sector.
No. 18-13:
Alan Fernihough and Cormac Ó Gráda
'Population and Poverty in Ireland on the Eve of the Great Famine'
December 2018
The link between demographic pressure and economic conditions in pre-Famine Ireland has long interested economists. This paper re-visits the topic, harnessing the highly disaggregated parish-level data from the 1841 Census of Ireland. Using population per value adjusted acre as a measure of population pressure, our results indicate that on the eve of the Great Famine of 1846{50, population pressure was positively associated with both illiteracy rates and the prevalence of poor quality housing. But while our analysis shows that population pressure was one of the primary factors underpinning pre-Famine poverty,
it also highlights the importance of geography and human agency. A counterfactual computation indicates that had Ireland's population stayed at its 1800 level, this would have led to only modest improvements in literacy and housing.
Alan Fernihough and Cormac Ó Gráda
'Population and Poverty in Ireland on the Eve of the Great Famine'
December 2018
The link between demographic pressure and economic conditions in pre-Famine Ireland has long interested economists. This paper re-visits the topic, harnessing the highly disaggregated parish-level data from the 1841 Census of Ireland. Using population per value adjusted acre as a measure of population pressure, our results indicate that on the eve of the Great Famine of 1846{50, population pressure was positively associated with both illiteracy rates and the prevalence of poor quality housing. But while our analysis shows that population pressure was one of the primary factors underpinning pre-Famine poverty,
it also highlights the importance of geography and human agency. A counterfactual computation indicates that had Ireland's population stayed at its 1800 level, this would have led to only modest improvements in literacy and housing.
No. 18-12:
Stephen D. Billington
'"War, What Is It Good For?" The Industrial Revolution!'
November 2018
Did the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars contribute to the Industrial Revolution? Recent scholarship argues warfare was an important factor in explaining Britain's industrialisation, by encouraging the invention and diffusion of key technologies with military applications. I re-examine this hypothesis by analysing the patenting of military inventions and inventions considered to be economically valuable during the Industrial Revolution. I find war led to a permanent increase in the rate of military and valuable patenting. War likely created a demand for superior military technologies, while increased wartime production led to demands for more valuable technologies, which both stimulated the Industrial Revolution.
Stephen D. Billington
'"War, What Is It Good For?" The Industrial Revolution!'
November 2018
Did the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars contribute to the Industrial Revolution? Recent scholarship argues warfare was an important factor in explaining Britain's industrialisation, by encouraging the invention and diffusion of key technologies with military applications. I re-examine this hypothesis by analysing the patenting of military inventions and inventions considered to be economically valuable during the Industrial Revolution. I find war led to a permanent increase in the rate of military and valuable patenting. War likely created a demand for superior military technologies, while increased wartime production led to demands for more valuable technologies, which both stimulated the Industrial Revolution.
No. 18-11:
Nikita Lychakov
'Government-made Bank Distress: Industrialisation Policies and the Russian Financial Crisis of 1899-1902'
November 2018
How can industrial policies lead to bank distress? In the 1890s, when undergoing rapid state-led industrialisation, the Russian Empire grew by foreign capital inflows into national debt and by state procurement of industrial output. Concurrently, state policies incentivised, but did not compel, commercial banks to finance industry. In 1899, the inflow of foreign capital fell sharply, initiating a financial crisis. Using newly-collected historical data and extensive narrative evidence, I find the banks which experienced greater distress in the crisis had more personal connections to the government officials who were close to the epicentre of policymaking. Moreover, these banks had more personal ties to the companies which had been most-stimulated by state policies to expand production. Taken together, these two findings suggest that national development policies had a destabilising impact on bank performance.
Nikita Lychakov
'Government-made Bank Distress: Industrialisation Policies and the Russian Financial Crisis of 1899-1902'
November 2018
How can industrial policies lead to bank distress? In the 1890s, when undergoing rapid state-led industrialisation, the Russian Empire grew by foreign capital inflows into national debt and by state procurement of industrial output. Concurrently, state policies incentivised, but did not compel, commercial banks to finance industry. In 1899, the inflow of foreign capital fell sharply, initiating a financial crisis. Using newly-collected historical data and extensive narrative evidence, I find the banks which experienced greater distress in the crisis had more personal connections to the government officials who were close to the epicentre of policymaking. Moreover, these banks had more personal ties to the companies which had been most-stimulated by state policies to expand production. Taken together, these two findings suggest that national development policies had a destabilising impact on bank performance.