QUCEH Seminar Series
We organise a bi-weekly in-person seminar at Riddel Hall during term time. Please contact Chris Colvin to find out more about our seminar series.
Next Seminar: Friday 7 February 2025 at 1PM
Speaker: Elissa Iorgulescu (University of Hohenheim)
Paper Title: Commodity Spot-Future Spreads and Inflation Expectations, 1877-2020
Abstract: Previous literature has used the spread between commodity spot and futures prices as a measure of inflation expectations, but the direction of this relationship has been called into question. We use hand-collected commodity price data to test the relationship between commodity spot-future spreads, subsequent inflation, and an independent measure of inflation expectations derived from the text of New York Times articles between 1877 and 2020. Spot-future spreads are found to have been positively associated with subsequent inflation from 1877-1922, but between 1952 and 2020, the relationship was negative. In the 1923-51 period, the relationship was generally ambiguous. We argue that this relationship changed because a shift in monetary regimes changed the optimal trading strategy for commodity traders with new information about inflationary or deflationary trends.
(Co-authored with William Quinn.)
Speaker: Elissa Iorgulescu (University of Hohenheim)
Paper Title: Commodity Spot-Future Spreads and Inflation Expectations, 1877-2020
Abstract: Previous literature has used the spread between commodity spot and futures prices as a measure of inflation expectations, but the direction of this relationship has been called into question. We use hand-collected commodity price data to test the relationship between commodity spot-future spreads, subsequent inflation, and an independent measure of inflation expectations derived from the text of New York Times articles between 1877 and 2020. Spot-future spreads are found to have been positively associated with subsequent inflation from 1877-1922, but between 1952 and 2020, the relationship was negative. In the 1923-51 period, the relationship was generally ambiguous. We argue that this relationship changed because a shift in monetary regimes changed the optimal trading strategy for commodity traders with new information about inflationary or deflationary trends.
(Co-authored with William Quinn.)
Link to Current Seminar Schedule:
Full Archive of Past Seminar Schedules:
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2023-2024
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2022-2023
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2021-2022
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2020-2021
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2019-2020
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2018-2019
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2017-2018
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2016-2017
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2015-2016
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2014-2015
- QUCEH Seminar Schedule: 2013-2014
International Macro History Online Seminar:
The International Macro History Online Seminar (IMHOS) is a collaboration of an international network of universities. Administered by the CEPR, it brings macroeconomic history topics to an interested public on a bi-weekly basis. QUCEH is one of the participating organisations.
The International Macro History Online Seminar (IMHOS) is a collaboration of an international network of universities. Administered by the CEPR, it brings macroeconomic history topics to an interested public on a bi-weekly basis. QUCEH is one of the participating organisations.