QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, Research Students and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin, for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 23-09:
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy and Jack Seddon
'Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74'
September 2023
How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling’s international ‘retirement’. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of ‘muddling through’. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy and Jack Seddon
'Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74'
September 2023
How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling’s international ‘retirement’. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of ‘muddling through’. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
No. 23-08:
Robin J. C. Adams, Michael Aldous, Philip T. Fliers and John D. Turner
'Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century'
August 2023
This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
Robin J. C. Adams, Michael Aldous, Philip T. Fliers and John D. Turner
'Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century'
August 2023
This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
No. 23-07:
Sotiris Kampanelis, Aldo Elizalde and Yannis M. Ioannides
'Songlines'
June 2023
This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly
along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge.
Sotiris Kampanelis, Aldo Elizalde and Yannis M. Ioannides
'Songlines'
June 2023
This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly
along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge.
No. 23-06:
Alan de Bromhead and Kevin O'Rourke
'Should history change the way we think about populism?'
April 2023
This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.
Alan de Bromhead and Kevin O'Rourke
'Should history change the way we think about populism?'
April 2023
This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.
No. 23-05:
Stephen D. Billington and Joe Lane
‘Clause and Effect’: Invention and State Intervention during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars
February 2023
Did the outbreak of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars influence technical change during the Industrial Revolution? We address this question by investigating an instance of state intervention into the market for inventions from 1792-1820: the introduction of a new proviso into British patents compelling inventors to supply the military, and also attracting military inventions from outside the patent system. We present new patent data alongside previously unused archival evidence to argue that the state’s intervention helped direct technical change in Britain. Our evidence provides additional support for the military-demand-induced hypothesis as a credible explanation for Britain’s ongoing industrialisation.
Stephen D. Billington and Joe Lane
‘Clause and Effect’: Invention and State Intervention during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars
February 2023
Did the outbreak of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars influence technical change during the Industrial Revolution? We address this question by investigating an instance of state intervention into the market for inventions from 1792-1820: the introduction of a new proviso into British patents compelling inventors to supply the military, and also attracting military inventions from outside the patent system. We present new patent data alongside previously unused archival evidence to argue that the state’s intervention helped direct technical change in Britain. Our evidence provides additional support for the military-demand-induced hypothesis as a credible explanation for Britain’s ongoing industrialisation.
No. 23-04:
David Jordan
'Failing to level up? Industrial policy and productivity in interwar Northern Ireland'
January 2023
This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26).
David Jordan
'Failing to level up? Industrial policy and productivity in interwar Northern Ireland'
January 2023
This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26).
No. 23-03:
Seán Kenny, Anders Ögren and Liang Zhao
'The Highs and the Lows: Bank Failures in Sweden through Inflation and Deflation, 1914-1926'
January 2023
This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26).
Seán Kenny, Anders Ögren and Liang Zhao
'The Highs and the Lows: Bank Failures in Sweden through Inflation and Deflation, 1914-1926'
January 2023
This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher’s ‘debt deflation theory’, we employ survival analysis to ‘predict’ which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26).
No. 23-02:
Paul Winfree
'The Long-Run Effects of Temporarily Closing Schools: Evidence from Virginia, 1870s-1910s'
January 2023
New hand-collected school administrative data from 1870s Virginia, alongside linked individual US Census records, reveals that temporary school closures had lasting effects on literacy and income in adulthood. Those affected by the closures had lower intergenerational economic mobility, particularly those from low-income backgrounds. The age at which the closures occurred also played a role with younger cohorts more affected by early developmental disruptions and older cohorts more affected by prolonged closures.
Paul Winfree
'The Long-Run Effects of Temporarily Closing Schools: Evidence from Virginia, 1870s-1910s'
January 2023
New hand-collected school administrative data from 1870s Virginia, alongside linked individual US Census records, reveals that temporary school closures had lasting effects on literacy and income in adulthood. Those affected by the closures had lower intergenerational economic mobility, particularly those from low-income backgrounds. The age at which the closures occurred also played a role with younger cohorts more affected by early developmental disruptions and older cohorts more affected by prolonged closures.
No. 23-01:
Aldo Elizalde, Eduardo Hidalgo and Nayeli Salgado
'Public Good or Public Bad? Indigenous Institutions and the Demand for Public Goods'
January 2023
This paper argues that the underprovision of public goods can be partly explained by lower demand from Indigenous groups with high preferences for Indigenous identity and a high capacity for coordination. Examining the post-Mexican Revolution period (1920s-1950s), when the state used the first road network for nation-building, our diff-in-diff analysis shows that pre-colonial political centralisation is associated with less road infrastructure. This is attributed to stronger capacity for collective action and stronger Indigenous identity preferences. Finally, we show that poor road infrastructure today is linked to lower economic performance.
Aldo Elizalde, Eduardo Hidalgo and Nayeli Salgado
'Public Good or Public Bad? Indigenous Institutions and the Demand for Public Goods'
January 2023
This paper argues that the underprovision of public goods can be partly explained by lower demand from Indigenous groups with high preferences for Indigenous identity and a high capacity for coordination. Examining the post-Mexican Revolution period (1920s-1950s), when the state used the first road network for nation-building, our diff-in-diff analysis shows that pre-colonial political centralisation is associated with less road infrastructure. This is attributed to stronger capacity for collective action and stronger Indigenous identity preferences. Finally, we show that poor road infrastructure today is linked to lower economic performance.
No. 22-13:
Ann M. Carlos
'The Country that They Built: The Dynamic and Complex Indigenous Economies in North America before 1492'
December 2022
The economic history of the United States is that of Europeans and their institutions. Indigenous nations are absent. This absence is due partly to lack of data but in large measure to a perception that Indigenous communities have contributed little to US growth. This paper argues that this erasure of Indigenous activity overestimates the contributions of European colonists and immigrants. Three case studies explore the economic complexity and social stratification across different nations/regions. Migrants to the Unites States did not come to an empty land but one with settled agriculture, complex production processes and extensive trade relations.
Ann M. Carlos
'The Country that They Built: The Dynamic and Complex Indigenous Economies in North America before 1492'
December 2022
The economic history of the United States is that of Europeans and their institutions. Indigenous nations are absent. This absence is due partly to lack of data but in large measure to a perception that Indigenous communities have contributed little to US growth. This paper argues that this erasure of Indigenous activity overestimates the contributions of European colonists and immigrants. Three case studies explore the economic complexity and social stratification across different nations/regions. Migrants to the Unites States did not come to an empty land but one with settled agriculture, complex production processes and extensive trade relations.
No. 22-12:
David A. Bogle, Gareth Campbell, Christopher Coyle and John D. Turner
'Why did Shareholder Liability Disappear'
December 2022
Why did shareholder liability disappear? We address this question by looking at its use by British insurance companies from 1830 until its complete disappearance by 1975. We explore three explanations for its demise: (1) regulation and government-provided policyholder protection meant that it was no longer required; (2) it had become de facto limited; and (3) shareholders saw an opportunity to expunge something they disliked when insurance companies grew in size. Using hand-collected archival data, our findings suggest investors attached a risk premium to shareholder liability, and it was phased out after a merger movement increased the size of insurance companies which meant that they were better able to pool risks.
David A. Bogle, Gareth Campbell, Christopher Coyle and John D. Turner
'Why did Shareholder Liability Disappear'
December 2022
Why did shareholder liability disappear? We address this question by looking at its use by British insurance companies from 1830 until its complete disappearance by 1975. We explore three explanations for its demise: (1) regulation and government-provided policyholder protection meant that it was no longer required; (2) it had become de facto limited; and (3) shareholders saw an opportunity to expunge something they disliked when insurance companies grew in size. Using hand-collected archival data, our findings suggest investors attached a risk premium to shareholder liability, and it was phased out after a merger movement increased the size of insurance companies which meant that they were better able to pool risks.
No. 22-11:
Alan Fernihough and Ronan C. Lyons
'Agglomeration and Emigration: The Economic Impact of Railways in Post-Famine Ireland'
December 2022
Ireland developed one of the world’s most intensive railroad networks in the second half of the 19th century. However, the emergence of railroads occurred in tandem with a failure to industrialize and mass depopulation suggesting limited, if any, impact on the island’s economy. This paper examines this claim from a trade-based market-access perspective. Matching high-resolution geospatial data for nearly 3,400 districts to existing road and waterway networks as well as Ireland’s nascent railroad network, we quantify the extent of market access improvements caused by rail. Additionally, we compute an external market access measure that accounts for improved access to international ports. Our findings reveal that this distinction is vital. Improvements in domestic market access brought about by railroads had a substantial positive influence on both population density and land values, while better access to ports had the opposite, negative, effect. Overall, these conflicting forces cancel out, hiding rail’s importance. However, a supplementary analysis reveals that the introduction of rail fostered a significant reorientation within the economy across two key domains: emigration and the labour-intensiveness of agriculture. Areas with relatively more access to ports experienced greater levels of emigration and a faster switch from labor-intensive tillage to pastoral farming—with differential access explaining around two-fifths of the observed shift in both variables between the Great Famine and the Great War.
Alan Fernihough and Ronan C. Lyons
'Agglomeration and Emigration: The Economic Impact of Railways in Post-Famine Ireland'
December 2022
Ireland developed one of the world’s most intensive railroad networks in the second half of the 19th century. However, the emergence of railroads occurred in tandem with a failure to industrialize and mass depopulation suggesting limited, if any, impact on the island’s economy. This paper examines this claim from a trade-based market-access perspective. Matching high-resolution geospatial data for nearly 3,400 districts to existing road and waterway networks as well as Ireland’s nascent railroad network, we quantify the extent of market access improvements caused by rail. Additionally, we compute an external market access measure that accounts for improved access to international ports. Our findings reveal that this distinction is vital. Improvements in domestic market access brought about by railroads had a substantial positive influence on both population density and land values, while better access to ports had the opposite, negative, effect. Overall, these conflicting forces cancel out, hiding rail’s importance. However, a supplementary analysis reveals that the introduction of rail fostered a significant reorientation within the economy across two key domains: emigration and the labour-intensiveness of agriculture. Areas with relatively more access to ports experienced greater levels of emigration and a faster switch from labor-intensive tillage to pastoral farming—with differential access explaining around two-fifths of the observed shift in both variables between the Great Famine and the Great War.