QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, current and former Research Students, and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin, for more information about the series. Working papers should be treated as pre-prints. These are completed versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication. Distribution as part of this series does not preclude subsequent publication in an academic journal.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2026
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2025
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2024
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2023
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2022
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2021
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2020
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2019
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2018
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2017
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2016
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2015
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2014
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 26-02:
Christopher L. Colvin, Andrew Dorman, David Jordan and Duncan Needham
Applied economic history as practical historicism: Encouraging policymakers to reason with the past
January 2026
This paper examines how applied history can contribute to policymaking when understood as a way of structuring judgement under uncertainty rather than as a source of policy lessons or predictions. It argues that economic history is particularly well suited to facilitating this role because it combines institutional analysis with disciplined comparison of plausible alternatives and close attention to temporal constraints. Distinguishing between micro-pedagogical and macro-institutional applications, the paper analyses two sites of practice: (1) a historically grounded policy simulation used to train early-career civil service economists delivered by the Centre for Economics, Policy and History, a research centre based in Belfast and Dublin; and (2) longer-term engagement between historians and policy advisers in Whitehall organised through History & Policy, an applied history forum. The paper concludes by clarifying the possibilities and limits of applied economic history as a contribution to reflective policy practice.
Christopher L. Colvin, Andrew Dorman, David Jordan and Duncan Needham
Applied economic history as practical historicism: Encouraging policymakers to reason with the past
January 2026
This paper examines how applied history can contribute to policymaking when understood as a way of structuring judgement under uncertainty rather than as a source of policy lessons or predictions. It argues that economic history is particularly well suited to facilitating this role because it combines institutional analysis with disciplined comparison of plausible alternatives and close attention to temporal constraints. Distinguishing between micro-pedagogical and macro-institutional applications, the paper analyses two sites of practice: (1) a historically grounded policy simulation used to train early-career civil service economists delivered by the Centre for Economics, Policy and History, a research centre based in Belfast and Dublin; and (2) longer-term engagement between historians and policy advisers in Whitehall organised through History & Policy, an applied history forum. The paper concludes by clarifying the possibilities and limits of applied economic history as a contribution to reflective policy practice.
No. 26-01:
Christopher L. Colvin and Johan Fourie
Histories that matter: The case for applied economic history
January 2026
We define applied economic history as the systematic use of historical reasoning to address economic policy problems. Building on work in applied history, we argue that economic history contributes to policy not by offering ready-made lessons, but by disciplining the narratives and analogies that policymakers and the public use. Unlike conventional economic history, which begins with a past episode and asks explanatory questions, an applied approach starts from a current problem and works backwards to identify relevant historical parallels. Selecting cases, however, is only the first step: their policy relevance depends on the narratives through which they are interpreted and put to use. We synthesise work from narrative economics, organisational history, and media and memory studies to clarify how historical narratives are conceptualised as shaping beliefs and behaviour, but also how they mislead when stripped of context. Applied economic history therefore requires careful narrative construction, standards for comparison, attention to difference as well as similarity, and transparency about uncertainty. We conclude by outlining how changes to training, incentives, and institutions could support engagement by economic historians with policymaking.
Christopher L. Colvin and Johan Fourie
Histories that matter: The case for applied economic history
January 2026
We define applied economic history as the systematic use of historical reasoning to address economic policy problems. Building on work in applied history, we argue that economic history contributes to policy not by offering ready-made lessons, but by disciplining the narratives and analogies that policymakers and the public use. Unlike conventional economic history, which begins with a past episode and asks explanatory questions, an applied approach starts from a current problem and works backwards to identify relevant historical parallels. Selecting cases, however, is only the first step: their policy relevance depends on the narratives through which they are interpreted and put to use. We synthesise work from narrative economics, organisational history, and media and memory studies to clarify how historical narratives are conceptualised as shaping beliefs and behaviour, but also how they mislead when stripped of context. Applied economic history therefore requires careful narrative construction, standards for comparison, attention to difference as well as similarity, and transparency about uncertainty. We conclude by outlining how changes to training, incentives, and institutions could support engagement by economic historians with policymaking.
No. 25-11:
Eoin McLaughlin and Niall Whelehan
Life, death, and Irish statistics: Recovering Ireland’s civil registration statistics, 1864-1920
December 2025
Civil registration of vital statistics was introduced in Ireland in 1864, yet historians have often viewed the resulting data as unreliable due to weak incentives for compliance and uneven administrative capacity. This paper reassesses the performance of Ireland’s vital registration system by tracing its legal origins, documenting its institutional development, and re-evaluating its demographic accuracy. We show that the primary motivation for establishing civil registration was the protection of property rights, which shaped both the design of the system and the incentives facing registrars. New evidence on legal utilisation demonstrates that recourse to records of vital registration increased steadily and converged with usage rates in Britain, suggesting growing engagement with an expanding bureaucratic state in Ireland. Revisiting longstanding comparisons between registered vital events and decadal census enumerations, we find that death registration was generally robust and that irregularities in birth registration are considerably smaller than earlier studies imply. These results indicate that Irish civil registration is more reliable, and more suitable for empirical research, than the prevailing consensus suggests. Revised age-standardised mortality estimates further show that, once demographic structure is accounted for, Ireland’s mortality trajectory was distinctive but not exceptional in comparative perspective.
Eoin McLaughlin and Niall Whelehan
Life, death, and Irish statistics: Recovering Ireland’s civil registration statistics, 1864-1920
December 2025
Civil registration of vital statistics was introduced in Ireland in 1864, yet historians have often viewed the resulting data as unreliable due to weak incentives for compliance and uneven administrative capacity. This paper reassesses the performance of Ireland’s vital registration system by tracing its legal origins, documenting its institutional development, and re-evaluating its demographic accuracy. We show that the primary motivation for establishing civil registration was the protection of property rights, which shaped both the design of the system and the incentives facing registrars. New evidence on legal utilisation demonstrates that recourse to records of vital registration increased steadily and converged with usage rates in Britain, suggesting growing engagement with an expanding bureaucratic state in Ireland. Revisiting longstanding comparisons between registered vital events and decadal census enumerations, we find that death registration was generally robust and that irregularities in birth registration are considerably smaller than earlier studies imply. These results indicate that Irish civil registration is more reliable, and more suitable for empirical research, than the prevailing consensus suggests. Revised age-standardised mortality estimates further show that, once demographic structure is accounted for, Ireland’s mortality trajectory was distinctive but not exceptional in comparative perspective.
No. 25-10:
William Quinn, John D. Turner and Clive B. Walker
Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019
December 2025
Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. We find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability.
William Quinn, John D. Turner and Clive B. Walker
Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019
December 2025
Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. We find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability.
No. 25-09:
Gareth Campbell, Áine Gallagher and Richard S. Grossman
Remote Investing in Latin America, 1869-1929
November 2025
Substantial amounts of British capital flowed to Latin America during the first era of globalisation. Companies financed by this capital were typically headquartered in the UK, but operated thousands of miles away. This paper asks how this geographic separation between governance and business activities affected the valuation of these firms. We find that the location of the headquarters played a more important role than the location of operations. Stock prices tended to fluctuate in line with other equities based in the UK, suggesting that they were still regarded as being, at least partially, British companies.
Gareth Campbell, Áine Gallagher and Richard S. Grossman
Remote Investing in Latin America, 1869-1929
November 2025
Substantial amounts of British capital flowed to Latin America during the first era of globalisation. Companies financed by this capital were typically headquartered in the UK, but operated thousands of miles away. This paper asks how this geographic separation between governance and business activities affected the valuation of these firms. We find that the location of the headquarters played a more important role than the location of operations. Stock prices tended to fluctuate in line with other equities based in the UK, suggesting that they were still regarded as being, at least partially, British companies.
No. 25-08:
Alessandro Brioschi
Networks Paving the Way: Apprenticeship and Occupational Mobility in Early Modern Genoa
November 2025
This paper investigates how kinship and professional networks shaped labour market outcomes in early modern Genoa. Using a newly constructed dataset of over 8,000 apprenticeship contracts (1450–1530), I examine the extent to which kinship ties with masters or guild members influenced both entry into apprenticeship and the probability of attaining mastership. Using a probabilistic record linkage strategy to reconstruct career trajectories, I show that apprentices with kinship ties to insiders were significantly more likely to become masters, received shorter contracts and enjoyed better contractual and training conditions. These advantages persisted even during periods of economic contraction, suggesting that apprenticeship functioned not only as an open mechanism for human capital formation but also as a selective filter reinforcing occupational stratification. The findings contribute to debates on the role of guilds in pre-industrial labour markets, offering empirical support for the view that social networks limited access to skilled work and upward mobility.
Alessandro Brioschi
Networks Paving the Way: Apprenticeship and Occupational Mobility in Early Modern Genoa
November 2025
This paper investigates how kinship and professional networks shaped labour market outcomes in early modern Genoa. Using a newly constructed dataset of over 8,000 apprenticeship contracts (1450–1530), I examine the extent to which kinship ties with masters or guild members influenced both entry into apprenticeship and the probability of attaining mastership. Using a probabilistic record linkage strategy to reconstruct career trajectories, I show that apprentices with kinship ties to insiders were significantly more likely to become masters, received shorter contracts and enjoyed better contractual and training conditions. These advantages persisted even during periods of economic contraction, suggesting that apprenticeship functioned not only as an open mechanism for human capital formation but also as a selective filter reinforcing occupational stratification. The findings contribute to debates on the role of guilds in pre-industrial labour markets, offering empirical support for the view that social networks limited access to skilled work and upward mobility.
No. 25-07:
Seán Kenny and Rebecca Stuart
Quarterly GDP for Ireland Since 1950
July 2025
We construct estimates of quarterly GDP for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our procedure exploits the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and our estimates are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of business cycle turning points than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence.
Seán Kenny and Rebecca Stuart
Quarterly GDP for Ireland Since 1950
July 2025
We construct estimates of quarterly GDP for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our procedure exploits the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and our estimates are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of business cycle turning points than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence.
No. 25-06:
Aditi Sahasrabuddhe and Jack Seddon
The Perils of Technocratic Power: Central Bank Discretion and the End of Bretton Woods Revisited
April 2025
Recent crises have cast doubt on the legitimacy of technocratic power, yet its role in global economic governance remains poorly understood. Revisiting the collapse of Bretton Woods, we propose a dynamic theory of global monetary governance to explain how expanding central bank discretion can destabilize systems. While most studies attribute the postwar system’s failure to geopolitical struggles, institutional weaknesses, or shifting economic ideas, they overlook the policies designed to manage and stabilize it. Drawing on historical institutionalism, we show how coordination tensions between rule-bound and discretionary policymakers—and the mutually reinforcing adaptation risks they faced—produced responses that appeared stabilizing in the short term but ultimately eroded long-run stability. New archival evidence from the IMF, BIS, and OECD reveals how tools like the London Gold Pool and currency swap lines extended central bank power, concealed macroeconomic imbalances, and crowded out political momentum for structural reform. As technocratic authority grew misaligned with political support and functional economic adjustment, it became a liability. This challenges the dominant view that technocratic actors are inherently superior in managing global economic policy.
Aditi Sahasrabuddhe and Jack Seddon
The Perils of Technocratic Power: Central Bank Discretion and the End of Bretton Woods Revisited
April 2025
Recent crises have cast doubt on the legitimacy of technocratic power, yet its role in global economic governance remains poorly understood. Revisiting the collapse of Bretton Woods, we propose a dynamic theory of global monetary governance to explain how expanding central bank discretion can destabilize systems. While most studies attribute the postwar system’s failure to geopolitical struggles, institutional weaknesses, or shifting economic ideas, they overlook the policies designed to manage and stabilize it. Drawing on historical institutionalism, we show how coordination tensions between rule-bound and discretionary policymakers—and the mutually reinforcing adaptation risks they faced—produced responses that appeared stabilizing in the short term but ultimately eroded long-run stability. New archival evidence from the IMF, BIS, and OECD reveals how tools like the London Gold Pool and currency swap lines extended central bank power, concealed macroeconomic imbalances, and crowded out political momentum for structural reform. As technocratic authority grew misaligned with political support and functional economic adjustment, it became a liability. This challenges the dominant view that technocratic actors are inherently superior in managing global economic policy.
No. 25-05:
Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart
Have We Under-Estimated Inflation Persistence Before WW1? US and International Evidence
April 2025
We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique.
Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart
Have We Under-Estimated Inflation Persistence Before WW1? US and International Evidence
April 2025
We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique.
No. 25-04:
Homer Wagenaar and Christopher L. Colvin
Patently Peculiar: Patents and Innovation in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands
April 2025
We examine the accessibility and functioning of the patent system in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, a state that existed between 1815 and 1830. The country’s patent law combined an examination process with significant government discretion over a patent’s duration and cost. Using our hand-collected database of all patent applications—granted, withdrawn, and rejected—we analyse the determinants of success, and the conditions imposed on applicants by the system’s administrators. We find that discretion optimised patent terms rather than causing bias. The system was accessible despite high fees. Our analysis suggests that social class, skills, and market orientation drove the demand for patents. Our research contributes to understanding the history of European patent institutions by adding high-quality patent data for the second economy in the world to experience an Industrial Revolution.
Homer Wagenaar and Christopher L. Colvin
Patently Peculiar: Patents and Innovation in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands
April 2025
We examine the accessibility and functioning of the patent system in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, a state that existed between 1815 and 1830. The country’s patent law combined an examination process with significant government discretion over a patent’s duration and cost. Using our hand-collected database of all patent applications—granted, withdrawn, and rejected—we analyse the determinants of success, and the conditions imposed on applicants by the system’s administrators. We find that discretion optimised patent terms rather than causing bias. The system was accessible despite high fees. Our analysis suggests that social class, skills, and market orientation drove the demand for patents. Our research contributes to understanding the history of European patent institutions by adding high-quality patent data for the second economy in the world to experience an Industrial Revolution.
No. 25-03:
Homer Wagenaar
The Patent System of the Netherlands in a Belgian Mirror, 1817-1869
April 2025
This paper is an institutional study of the patent systems of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and its successor states Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. The patent law of 1817 gave the state wide discretion to accept or refuse patents and to customise their duration, fees, and terms on a case-by-case basis. Through an in-depth reconstruction of the patent system’s administrative process, I demonstrate (1) how this system developed informal rules of procedure in its initial years, and (2) how the law after Belgium’s independence from 1830 fared differently in each successor state. While in Belgium the patent system became widely used and increasingly codified, culminating in an 1850s reform, in the Netherlands the neglect of the patent system led in 1869 to its abolition.
Homer Wagenaar
The Patent System of the Netherlands in a Belgian Mirror, 1817-1869
April 2025
This paper is an institutional study of the patent systems of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and its successor states Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. The patent law of 1817 gave the state wide discretion to accept or refuse patents and to customise their duration, fees, and terms on a case-by-case basis. Through an in-depth reconstruction of the patent system’s administrative process, I demonstrate (1) how this system developed informal rules of procedure in its initial years, and (2) how the law after Belgium’s independence from 1830 fared differently in each successor state. While in Belgium the patent system became widely used and increasingly codified, culminating in an 1850s reform, in the Netherlands the neglect of the patent system led in 1869 to its abolition.
No. 25-02:
Darragh McLaughlin, Eoin McLaughlin and Seán Kenny
Taking a Punt: Monetary Experimentation and the Irish Macroeconomic Crisis of 1955-56
February 2025
The 1955-56 macroeconomic crisis is a central event in modern Irish history. Yet, despite this centrality, its causes are not clearly understood. In 1955-6, Ireland, which had previously followed British interest rates in lockstep as part of its fixed exchange with the latter, briefly experimented with independent monetary policy. Our contribution is twofold. First, we highlight how the Irish response was based on a misunderstanding of a run on Sterling in 1955. Second, we focus on a series of monetary shocks taking place from January 1955 to February 1956. We construct yields for Irish and UK public debt, as well as bank share indices at a daily frequency (1954-6), to test whether the shock was transmitted via financial markets. Employing an event study and testing for structural breaks, we explore the institutional framework through which the mechanisms of the crisis occurred. We find that expansionary monetary policy can only be maintained with sufficient reserves, merely postponing the inevitability of capital flight which is observed in the banking sector.
Darragh McLaughlin, Eoin McLaughlin and Seán Kenny
Taking a Punt: Monetary Experimentation and the Irish Macroeconomic Crisis of 1955-56
February 2025
The 1955-56 macroeconomic crisis is a central event in modern Irish history. Yet, despite this centrality, its causes are not clearly understood. In 1955-6, Ireland, which had previously followed British interest rates in lockstep as part of its fixed exchange with the latter, briefly experimented with independent monetary policy. Our contribution is twofold. First, we highlight how the Irish response was based on a misunderstanding of a run on Sterling in 1955. Second, we focus on a series of monetary shocks taking place from January 1955 to February 1956. We construct yields for Irish and UK public debt, as well as bank share indices at a daily frequency (1954-6), to test whether the shock was transmitted via financial markets. Employing an event study and testing for structural breaks, we explore the institutional framework through which the mechanisms of the crisis occurred. We find that expansionary monetary policy can only be maintained with sufficient reserves, merely postponing the inevitability of capital flight which is observed in the banking sector.
No. 25-01:
Stephen D. Billington, Christopher L. Colvin and Christopher Coyle
Financing Innovation: The Role of Patent Examination
January 2025
How does patent examination influence access to finance for innovative firms? We exploit a reform to the UK’s patent system that introduced substantive examination to the patent application process, improving the information available to potential investors on the value of firms’ patents. Using a newly compiled firm-level dataset of exchange-listed corporations, we find that firms holding examined patents were able to borrow more, reflecting improved access to capital markets, and leading to firm growth. Our results highlight the role of patent examination in reducing information asymmetries, enhancing the signalling value of patents, and mitigating financial barriers to innovation.
Stephen D. Billington, Christopher L. Colvin and Christopher Coyle
Financing Innovation: The Role of Patent Examination
January 2025
How does patent examination influence access to finance for innovative firms? We exploit a reform to the UK’s patent system that introduced substantive examination to the patent application process, improving the information available to potential investors on the value of firms’ patents. Using a newly compiled firm-level dataset of exchange-listed corporations, we find that firms holding examined patents were able to borrow more, reflecting improved access to capital markets, and leading to firm growth. Our results highlight the role of patent examination in reducing information asymmetries, enhancing the signalling value of patents, and mitigating financial barriers to innovation.