QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, Research Students and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin (chris.colvin@qub.ac.uk), for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 21-06:
Christopher L. Colvin, Eoin McLaughlin, and Kyle J. J. Richmond
'Cohort component population estimates for Ireland, 1911-1920: A new county-level dataset for use in historical demography'
June 2021
This is a dataset of vital statistics and cohort component population estimates at a spatially-disaggregated level for the island of Ireland for the period 1911-1920. The raw data were digitised by the authors using official UK government statistics. The population estimates were then derived by the cohort component method. These data provide novel intercensal population estimates at the county level that will be beneficial for researchers working in historical demography, as well as in economic and social history. The data provided can be readily reused and extended by other researchers to produce further series and indicators. An example application of the data in this manner can be seen in Colvin and McLaughlin (2021), which combines the population estimates discussed here with mortality statistics from the Spanish flu pandemic in order to demonstrate how demographic composition affects the interpretation of data on public health crises.
Christopher L. Colvin, Eoin McLaughlin, and Kyle J. J. Richmond
'Cohort component population estimates for Ireland, 1911-1920: A new county-level dataset for use in historical demography'
June 2021
This is a dataset of vital statistics and cohort component population estimates at a spatially-disaggregated level for the island of Ireland for the period 1911-1920. The raw data were digitised by the authors using official UK government statistics. The population estimates were then derived by the cohort component method. These data provide novel intercensal population estimates at the county level that will be beneficial for researchers working in historical demography, as well as in economic and social history. The data provided can be readily reused and extended by other researchers to produce further series and indicators. An example application of the data in this manner can be seen in Colvin and McLaughlin (2021), which combines the population estimates discussed here with mortality statistics from the Spanish flu pandemic in order to demonstrate how demographic composition affects the interpretation of data on public health crises.
No. 21-05:
Christie Swanepoel, and Philip T. Fliers
'The Fuel of Unparalleled Recovery: Monetary Policy in South Africa between 1925 and 1936'
June 2021
The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa’s exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa’s exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB’s policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country’s exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation, was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa’s unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation, however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank’s control over the gold markets were of paramount importance.
Christie Swanepoel, and Philip T. Fliers
'The Fuel of Unparalleled Recovery: Monetary Policy in South Africa between 1925 and 1936'
June 2021
The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa’s exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa’s exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB’s policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country’s exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation, was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa’s unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation, however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank’s control over the gold markets were of paramount importance.
No. 21-04:
Ann M. Carlos, Donna Feir, and Angela Redish
'Indigenous Nations and the Development of the US Economy: Land, Resources, and Dispossession'
June 2021
Abundant land and strong property rights are conventionally viewed as key factors underpinning US economic development success. This view relies on the “Pristine Myth” of an empty undeveloped land. But the abundant land of North America was already made productive and was the recognized territory of sovereign Indigenous Nations. We demonstrate that the development of strong property rights for European/American settlers was mirrored by the attenuation and increasing disregard of Indigenous property rights and that the dearth of discussion of the dispossession of Indigenous nations results in a misunderstanding of some of the core themes of US economic history.
Ann M. Carlos, Donna Feir, and Angela Redish
'Indigenous Nations and the Development of the US Economy: Land, Resources, and Dispossession'
June 2021
Abundant land and strong property rights are conventionally viewed as key factors underpinning US economic development success. This view relies on the “Pristine Myth” of an empty undeveloped land. But the abundant land of North America was already made productive and was the recognized territory of sovereign Indigenous Nations. We demonstrate that the development of strong property rights for European/American settlers was mirrored by the attenuation and increasing disregard of Indigenous property rights and that the dearth of discussion of the dispossession of Indigenous nations results in a misunderstanding of some of the core themes of US economic history.
No. 21-03:
Matthias Blum, Karl-Peter Krauss, and Dmytro Myeshkov
'Human capital transfer of German-speaking migrants in Eastern Europe, 1780s-1820s'
May 2021
Prior to the Age of Mass Migration, Germans left central Europe to settle primarily in modern-day Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. Despite the harsh conditions that the first generation of settlers had to endure, their descendants often fared better, not worse, compared to native population groups. This study offers a possible explanation for this surprising outcome. We use data on approximately 11,500 individuals to estimate and compare basic numeracy scores of German settlers and other populations groups in target regions. We find that German settlers generally had superior basic numeracy levels, suggesting that these settlers must have contributed positively to the human capital endowment in their target regions. The numeracy of Germans was somewhat higher than the numeracy of Hungarians and substantially higher than the numeracy of Russians, Ukrainians and Serbs. We do not find noteworthy differences in terms of numeracy between German emigrants and the population they left behind, suggesting the absence of substantial migrant selection.
Matthias Blum, Karl-Peter Krauss, and Dmytro Myeshkov
'Human capital transfer of German-speaking migrants in Eastern Europe, 1780s-1820s'
May 2021
Prior to the Age of Mass Migration, Germans left central Europe to settle primarily in modern-day Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. Despite the harsh conditions that the first generation of settlers had to endure, their descendants often fared better, not worse, compared to native population groups. This study offers a possible explanation for this surprising outcome. We use data on approximately 11,500 individuals to estimate and compare basic numeracy scores of German settlers and other populations groups in target regions. We find that German settlers generally had superior basic numeracy levels, suggesting that these settlers must have contributed positively to the human capital endowment in their target regions. The numeracy of Germans was somewhat higher than the numeracy of Hungarians and substantially higher than the numeracy of Russians, Ukrainians and Serbs. We do not find noteworthy differences in terms of numeracy between German emigrants and the population they left behind, suggesting the absence of substantial migrant selection.
No. 21-02:
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy, and Jack Seddon
'How does International Monetary Leadership End? The Sterling Area Revisited'
April 2021
How does international monetary leadership end? This paper examines the decline of the Sterling Area between 1945 and 1979 to understand the process of international economic disintegration. Using an original cross-national panel dataset, we conduct survival analysis which systematically evaluates a comprehensive set of economic and political factors about when and why countries chose to leave the Sterling Area. We find that membership of the Sterling Area was determined by multidimensional aspects. Our results highlight the significance of international economic and geopolitical factors, such as trade and diplomatic alignment, on the decision to leave. However we also find that domestic political and historical factors, such as democracy and imperial legacy, played a role in the Sterling Area’s unravelling. Finally, we use our results to examine the experience of individual countries and their decisions to leave the Sterling Area. Revisiting this history of a gradually dissolving economic order, played out in the shadow of Britain’s waning imperial and economic power, has cautionary implications for the future of the US dollar order.
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy, and Jack Seddon
'How does International Monetary Leadership End? The Sterling Area Revisited'
April 2021
How does international monetary leadership end? This paper examines the decline of the Sterling Area between 1945 and 1979 to understand the process of international economic disintegration. Using an original cross-national panel dataset, we conduct survival analysis which systematically evaluates a comprehensive set of economic and political factors about when and why countries chose to leave the Sterling Area. We find that membership of the Sterling Area was determined by multidimensional aspects. Our results highlight the significance of international economic and geopolitical factors, such as trade and diplomatic alignment, on the decision to leave. However we also find that domestic political and historical factors, such as democracy and imperial legacy, played a role in the Sterling Area’s unravelling. Finally, we use our results to examine the experience of individual countries and their decisions to leave the Sterling Area. Revisiting this history of a gradually dissolving economic order, played out in the shadow of Britain’s waning imperial and economic power, has cautionary implications for the future of the US dollar order.
No. 21-01:
Áine Doran
'A Poor Inquiry: Poverty and Living Standards in Pre-Famine Ireland'
February 2021
This paper studies the relationship between pre-famine living conditions and famine severity. I digitise the parish-level returns of the Irish Poor Inquiry and use these to explain the co-variates of increasing poverty in the early nineteenth century and examine how they impacted the severity of The Great Famine. I find that income acted as a key co-variate of increasing poverty, with the poor becoming poorer. However, it is levels, not changes, of poverty which are found to be a key determinant of famine severity, alongside the structural features of parishes, such as their distance from the nearest navigable waterway. The paper also fails to find evidence of increasing poverty or famine severity being a result of overpopulation.
Áine Doran
'A Poor Inquiry: Poverty and Living Standards in Pre-Famine Ireland'
February 2021
This paper studies the relationship between pre-famine living conditions and famine severity. I digitise the parish-level returns of the Irish Poor Inquiry and use these to explain the co-variates of increasing poverty in the early nineteenth century and examine how they impacted the severity of The Great Famine. I find that income acted as a key co-variate of increasing poverty, with the poor becoming poorer. However, it is levels, not changes, of poverty which are found to be a key determinant of famine severity, alongside the structural features of parishes, such as their distance from the nearest navigable waterway. The paper also fails to find evidence of increasing poverty or famine severity being a result of overpopulation.
No. 20-10:
Michael Aldous and Christopher Coyle
'The Liverpool Cotton Brokers Association and the Crowning of King Cotton, 1811-1900: Examining the Role of a Private Order Institution in Global Trade'
December 2020
In the 19th century, the Liverpool Cotton Brokers Association (CBA) coordinated the dramatic growth of Liverpool’s raw cotton market. This article shows how the CBA achieved this through the development of a private order institutional framework that improved information flows, introduced standardization and contracting regimes, and regulated market exchange platforms. These developments corresponded with significantly improved market coordination, which facilitated the growth of the largest raw cotton market in the world. The article’s findings demonstrate and quantify the importance of non-state actors, in creating institutions of global exchange central to the first wave of globalization.
Michael Aldous and Christopher Coyle
'The Liverpool Cotton Brokers Association and the Crowning of King Cotton, 1811-1900: Examining the Role of a Private Order Institution in Global Trade'
December 2020
In the 19th century, the Liverpool Cotton Brokers Association (CBA) coordinated the dramatic growth of Liverpool’s raw cotton market. This article shows how the CBA achieved this through the development of a private order institutional framework that improved information flows, introduced standardization and contracting regimes, and regulated market exchange platforms. These developments corresponded with significantly improved market coordination, which facilitated the growth of the largest raw cotton market in the world. The article’s findings demonstrate and quantify the importance of non-state actors, in creating institutions of global exchange central to the first wave of globalization.
No. 20-09:
David A. Bogle, Christopher Coyle and John D. Turner
'Capital Market Development over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers over Two Centuries'
November 2020
What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and the wider macroeconomic environment was the ultimate determinant of major changes in asset allocation since 1800. Furthermore, when we compare the UK with the United States, we find that regulation played a limited role in shaping the asset portfolios of the UK life assurance industry.
David A. Bogle, Christopher Coyle and John D. Turner
'Capital Market Development over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers over Two Centuries'
November 2020
What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and the wider macroeconomic environment was the ultimate determinant of major changes in asset allocation since 1800. Furthermore, when we compare the UK with the United States, we find that regulation played a limited role in shaping the asset portfolios of the UK life assurance industry.