QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, Research Students and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin, for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 24-07:
Alan Fernihough, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Mind Your Language: Explaining the Retreat of the Irish Language Frontier'
July 2024
Why do we choose one language over another? Rival views see language frontiers as exogenous, driven by policy, or endogenous, determined by social, cultural and economic forces. We study language loss in nineteenth-century Ireland's bilingual society using individual-level data from the 1901 census. Our analysis highlights the intergenerational influence of the education received by a community’s elders on subsequent generations’ language use. This is consistent with an endogenous demand for English driving language choice because the elder generation's literacy was acquired by attending privately financed voluntary primary schools in a period that predates state-funded compulsory schooling.
Alan Fernihough, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Mind Your Language: Explaining the Retreat of the Irish Language Frontier'
July 2024
Why do we choose one language over another? Rival views see language frontiers as exogenous, driven by policy, or endogenous, determined by social, cultural and economic forces. We study language loss in nineteenth-century Ireland's bilingual society using individual-level data from the 1901 census. Our analysis highlights the intergenerational influence of the education received by a community’s elders on subsequent generations’ language use. This is consistent with an endogenous demand for English driving language choice because the elder generation's literacy was acquired by attending privately financed voluntary primary schools in a period that predates state-funded compulsory schooling.
No. 24-06:
Alan de Bromhead and Seán Kenny
'Irish Regional GDP Since Independence'
June 2024
This paper constructs the first estimates of Irish regional GDP over the twentieth century and traces the relative economic performance of Ireland’s regions since independence. Using an array of data sources available at a county level, output in Agriculture, Industry and Services in benchmark census years is estimated. Applying a variety of alternative measures, we find a reduction in regional inequality over the period that is similar to the broader European pattern. Regional convergence over the period 1926-1991 was driven by both within-sector convergence in productivity and structural change. Our paper helps to understand the regional dimensions to Irish economic development from the birth of a newly independent state up to the eve of Ireland's growth 'miracle' in the 1990s, when the first official efforts were initiated to construct these figures. Finally, we connect our estimates to these official figures to examine GDP at the level of NUTS regions up to 2021.
Alan de Bromhead and Seán Kenny
'Irish Regional GDP Since Independence'
June 2024
This paper constructs the first estimates of Irish regional GDP over the twentieth century and traces the relative economic performance of Ireland’s regions since independence. Using an array of data sources available at a county level, output in Agriculture, Industry and Services in benchmark census years is estimated. Applying a variety of alternative measures, we find a reduction in regional inequality over the period that is similar to the broader European pattern. Regional convergence over the period 1926-1991 was driven by both within-sector convergence in productivity and structural change. Our paper helps to understand the regional dimensions to Irish economic development from the birth of a newly independent state up to the eve of Ireland's growth 'miracle' in the 1990s, when the first official efforts were initiated to construct these figures. Finally, we connect our estimates to these official figures to examine GDP at the level of NUTS regions up to 2021.
No. 24-05:
Seán Kenny
'Irish GDP Since Independence'
May 2024
This paper constructs annual GDP estimates for Ireland (1924-47) to join the first complete official aggregates. The new series is deployed to revisit Ireland’s economic performance in the post-independence decades. Ireland’s economy grew at 1.5 per cent per annum and average living standards improved by 40 per cent. The bulk of this was due to labour productivity improvements stemming from workers moving out of agriculture. Starting in 1924 captures the civil war recovery and paints a more positive picture of the 1920s, while the traditional narrative of a “mild” Great Depression is upheld. The 1930s recovery was aided by strong contributions from services and industry, while the economy contracted by 7 per cent during the early “Emergency”. Though supporting O’Rourke’s view that Irish growth was not unique against European peers, the new data provide evidence of stronger convergence against UK regions. Industry contributed most to growth during the period, growing at 3.6 per cent per annum. The equivalent rate for services was 1.3 per cent, though it contributed substantially during recovery periods. Agricultural output hardly changed due to its post-war contraction. This paper joins a growing number of studies that suggest that Ireland was poorer at independence than previously believed.
Seán Kenny
'Irish GDP Since Independence'
May 2024
This paper constructs annual GDP estimates for Ireland (1924-47) to join the first complete official aggregates. The new series is deployed to revisit Ireland’s economic performance in the post-independence decades. Ireland’s economy grew at 1.5 per cent per annum and average living standards improved by 40 per cent. The bulk of this was due to labour productivity improvements stemming from workers moving out of agriculture. Starting in 1924 captures the civil war recovery and paints a more positive picture of the 1920s, while the traditional narrative of a “mild” Great Depression is upheld. The 1930s recovery was aided by strong contributions from services and industry, while the economy contracted by 7 per cent during the early “Emergency”. Though supporting O’Rourke’s view that Irish growth was not unique against European peers, the new data provide evidence of stronger convergence against UK regions. Industry contributed most to growth during the period, growing at 3.6 per cent per annum. The equivalent rate for services was 1.3 per cent, though it contributed substantially during recovery periods. Agricultural output hardly changed due to its post-war contraction. This paper joins a growing number of studies that suggest that Ireland was poorer at independence than previously believed.
No. 24-04:
Ann M. Carlos, Erik Green, Calumet Links and Angela Redish
'Early-Modern Globalization and the Extent of Indigenous Agency: Trade, Commodities, and Ecology'
May 2024
This paper examines the responses of Indigenous nations and European companies to new trading opportunities: Cree nations and the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC), and Khoe nations and the Dutch East India Company (VOC). This case study is important because of the disparate outcomes: within a few decades the Cree standard of living had increased, and Khoe had lost land and cattle. Standard histories begin with the establishment of trading posts but this elides the decades of prior intermittent contact which played an important role in the disparate outcomes in the two regions. The paper emphasizes the significance of Indigenous agency in trade.
Ann M. Carlos, Erik Green, Calumet Links and Angela Redish
'Early-Modern Globalization and the Extent of Indigenous Agency: Trade, Commodities, and Ecology'
May 2024
This paper examines the responses of Indigenous nations and European companies to new trading opportunities: Cree nations and the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC), and Khoe nations and the Dutch East India Company (VOC). This case study is important because of the disparate outcomes: within a few decades the Cree standard of living had increased, and Khoe had lost land and cattle. Standard histories begin with the establishment of trading posts but this elides the decades of prior intermittent contact which played an important role in the disparate outcomes in the two regions. The paper emphasizes the significance of Indigenous agency in trade.
No. 24-03:
Lucia Pozzi, Francesco Scalone, Michail Rafakis and Liam Kennedy
'Religious Affiliation and Child Mortality in Ireland: A Country-Wide Analysis based on the 1911 Census'
February 2024
Previous studies have identified a link between religious affiliation and child mortality, yet the underlying factors that contributed to this association are not fully understood. This study investigates how religious affiliation might have influenced child mortality in early 20th- century Ireland, having controlled for socio-economic status, literacy, and place of residence at both individual and contextual levels. We utilize the 1911 IPUMS Irish census, indirect techniques, and regression analysis to examine the role of religious affiliation on child mortality. We conduct various OLS regressions, controlling for demographic factors and socioeconomic conditions at both individual and contextual levels.
Lucia Pozzi, Francesco Scalone, Michail Rafakis and Liam Kennedy
'Religious Affiliation and Child Mortality in Ireland: A Country-Wide Analysis based on the 1911 Census'
February 2024
Previous studies have identified a link between religious affiliation and child mortality, yet the underlying factors that contributed to this association are not fully understood. This study investigates how religious affiliation might have influenced child mortality in early 20th- century Ireland, having controlled for socio-economic status, literacy, and place of residence at both individual and contextual levels. We utilize the 1911 IPUMS Irish census, indirect techniques, and regression analysis to examine the role of religious affiliation on child mortality. We conduct various OLS regressions, controlling for demographic factors and socioeconomic conditions at both individual and contextual levels.
No. 24-02:
Eoin McLaughlin and Niall Whelehan
'Rethinking the Geography of Distress in Nineteenth-Century Ireland: Excess Mortality and the Land War'
February 2024
Analysis of excess mortality holds the potential to revise understandings of key moments in modern Irish history. Yet aside from studies of the Great Famine, it has been neglected by historians of Ireland. Examining rates of excess mortality across post-Famine Ireland reveals that the Land War crisis of 1877-1882, a transformational period, was one of the worst public health crises of modern Irish history. In fact, during the years 1878-1880 excess mortality levels were much higher than during any other period from when registration records began in 1864 up to the present day. Western regions, particularly Co. Mayo, have long been considered the worst affected by this crisis, but from the perspective of excess mortality, we establish that this was an island-wide crisis and one that was more severe that previously understood. The study of excess mortality in Irish history has been neglected partly because of some concerns expressed by scholars about the reliability of the source material in the annual statistical reports of the Registrar General. Yet, we document the reliability of the registers by cross-referencing with census returns, demonstrating their accuracy in the 1870s and 1880s, and their importance as sources to provide vital insights and context in modern Irish history.
Eoin McLaughlin and Niall Whelehan
'Rethinking the Geography of Distress in Nineteenth-Century Ireland: Excess Mortality and the Land War'
February 2024
Analysis of excess mortality holds the potential to revise understandings of key moments in modern Irish history. Yet aside from studies of the Great Famine, it has been neglected by historians of Ireland. Examining rates of excess mortality across post-Famine Ireland reveals that the Land War crisis of 1877-1882, a transformational period, was one of the worst public health crises of modern Irish history. In fact, during the years 1878-1880 excess mortality levels were much higher than during any other period from when registration records began in 1864 up to the present day. Western regions, particularly Co. Mayo, have long been considered the worst affected by this crisis, but from the perspective of excess mortality, we establish that this was an island-wide crisis and one that was more severe that previously understood. The study of excess mortality in Irish history has been neglected partly because of some concerns expressed by scholars about the reliability of the source material in the annual statistical reports of the Registrar General. Yet, we document the reliability of the registers by cross-referencing with census returns, demonstrating their accuracy in the 1870s and 1880s, and their importance as sources to provide vital insights and context in modern Irish history.
No. 24-01:
John Turner
'Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK'
January 2024
As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of UK public companies over the past 300 years. It makes two principal arguments. First, because the separation of ownership and control was one of the rationales for the introduction of the corporate form, we should not be surprised that corporate ownership has generally been diffuse. Second, over time, the way in which owners ensure that managers act in their interests has gradually changed from a system in which shareholders monitored and exercised voice to one where there was more reliance on external forces and exiting ownership.
John Turner
'Three Centuries of Corporate Governance in the UK'
January 2024
As articulated by Adam Smith, one of the central issues facing companies is that managers will not run the business in the interests of its owners and will misuse resources. This ultimately has a detrimental consequence for the wealth of the nation. This survey reviews the nature and evolution of the corporate governance of UK public companies over the past 300 years. It makes two principal arguments. First, because the separation of ownership and control was one of the rationales for the introduction of the corporate form, we should not be surprised that corporate ownership has generally been diffuse. Second, over time, the way in which owners ensure that managers act in their interests has gradually changed from a system in which shareholders monitored and exercised voice to one where there was more reliance on external forces and exiting ownership.
No. 23-11:
Jason Lennard, Seán Kenny and Emma Horgan
'Banks and the economy: Evidence from the Irish bank strike of 1966'
December 2023
This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counterfactual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance.
Jason Lennard, Seán Kenny and Emma Horgan
'Banks and the economy: Evidence from the Irish bank strike of 1966'
December 2023
This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counterfactual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance.
No. 23-10:
Áine Doran, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature'
December 2023
What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.
Áine Doran, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature'
December 2023
What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.
No. 23-09:
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy and Jack Seddon
'Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74'
September 2023
How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling’s international ‘retirement’. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of ‘muddling through’. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
Alan de Bromhead, David Jordan, Francis Kennedy and Jack Seddon
'Managed decline? Muddling through with the Sterling (dis)agreements, 1968-74'
September 2023
How do policy makers manage the decline of an international currency? This paper examines British policy towards the pound sterling’s international role in the years 1968-74. Using previously uncited government archival sources, we revisit the view that the ‘sterling agreements’ of 1968-74, bilateral contracts made between the UK and governments holding sterling, formed a successful paradigm shift in British policy, towards deliberately managing sterling’s international ‘retirement’. Our research indicates that there was no settled consensus or strategic direction to British policy in this period, a case of ‘muddling through’. Indeed, when feasible options presented themselves, British officials sought to maximise, not reduce, international sterling holdings.
No. 23-08:
Robin J. C. Adams, Michael Aldous, Philip T. Fliers and John D. Turner
'Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century'
August 2023
This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
Robin J. C. Adams, Michael Aldous, Philip T. Fliers and John D. Turner
'Aristocratic Amateurs to Fat Cats? British CEOs in the Twentieth Century'
August 2023
This article uses a prosopographical methodology and a new dataset of 1,558 CEOs from Britain’s largest public companies between 1900 and 2009 to analyse how the role, social background, and career pathways of corporate leaders changed. We have four main findings: First, the designation of CEO only prevailed in the 1990s. Second, the proportion of socially elite CEOs was highest before 1940, but they were not dominant. Third, most CEOs did not have a degree before the 1980s, or professional qualification until the 1990s. Fourth, liberal market reforms in the 1980s increased the likelihood of dismissal by a factor of three.
No. 23-07:
Sotiris Kampanelis, Aldo Elizalde and Yannis M. Ioannides
'Songlines'
June 2023
This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly
along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge.
Sotiris Kampanelis, Aldo Elizalde and Yannis M. Ioannides
'Songlines'
June 2023
This paper examines the long-term economic impacts of the adoption of local knowledge during European colonisation. We use the case of Australia, where Aboriginal knowledge of the landscape was integral to colonial exploration and settlement. To quantify the effects of this knowledge, we construct a newly digitised and georeferenced dataset of trade routes created by Aboriginal people based on oral traditions, known as Songlines. Our results indicate that Aboriginal trade routes are strongly associated with current economic activity as measured by nighttime satellite imagery. We attribute this association to path dependence and agglomeration effects that emanate from the transport infrastructure built by Europeans roughly
along these routes, which have agglomerated economic activity. Finally, by exploiting exogenous variation in optimal travel routes, we provide evidence that our results are not entirely determined by the inherent characteristics of Australian topography, but rather by Aboriginal knowledge.