QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, Research Students and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin (chris.colvin@qub.ac.uk), for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 22-01:
R. J. C. Adams, Gareth Campbell, Christopher Coyle, and John D. Turner
'The Wee Divergence: Business Creation and Political Turmoil in Ireland before 1900'
January 2022
What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising from the Home Rule movement resulted in reduced entrepreneurial activity and business investment. We find that increased political instability led to a significant divergence of business creation between Scotland and Ireland. Our findings suggest that the effects of political instability on entrepreneurship were most acute in the parts of Ireland that were most concerned by potential changes.
R. J. C. Adams, Gareth Campbell, Christopher Coyle, and John D. Turner
'The Wee Divergence: Business Creation and Political Turmoil in Ireland before 1900'
January 2022
What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising from the Home Rule movement resulted in reduced entrepreneurial activity and business investment. We find that increased political instability led to a significant divergence of business creation between Scotland and Ireland. Our findings suggest that the effects of political instability on entrepreneurship were most acute in the parts of Ireland that were most concerned by potential changes.
No. 21-09:
Laura Wurm
'Strangling Speculation: The Effect of the 1903 Viennese Futures Trading Ban'
December 2021
How does futures trading affect spot price volatility? This paper uses a unique early-twentieth century natural experiment to test what happens when futures trading no longer exists. In 1903, futures trading in the Viennese grain market was banned. The permanency of this ban makes it ideal for studying its effect on volatility, using a difference-in-difference framework. Prices from Budapest, a market operating under similar conditions but unaffected by the ban, are used as a control. This paper finds increased spot price volatility and lower pricing accuracy because the information-transmission and risk-allocation functions of the futures market were no longer maintained.
Laura Wurm
'Strangling Speculation: The Effect of the 1903 Viennese Futures Trading Ban'
December 2021
How does futures trading affect spot price volatility? This paper uses a unique early-twentieth century natural experiment to test what happens when futures trading no longer exists. In 1903, futures trading in the Viennese grain market was banned. The permanency of this ban makes it ideal for studying its effect on volatility, using a difference-in-difference framework. Prices from Budapest, a market operating under similar conditions but unaffected by the ban, are used as a control. This paper finds increased spot price volatility and lower pricing accuracy because the information-transmission and risk-allocation functions of the futures market were no longer maintained.
No. 21-08:
Alan de Bromhead and Ronan C. Lyons
'Rooted to the Soil: The Impact of Social Housing on Population in Ireland since 1911'
November 2021
How does housing policy influence the distribution of population? We examine the impact of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme on the long-term dynamics of rural population, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883-1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing, which effectively halved rents for landless laborers, affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. Our findings suggest that deep housing policy interventions can have long-lasting effects on population distribution.
Alan de Bromhead and Ronan C. Lyons
'Rooted to the Soil: The Impact of Social Housing on Population in Ireland since 1911'
November 2021
How does housing policy influence the distribution of population? We examine the impact of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme on the long-term dynamics of rural population, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883-1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing, which effectively halved rents for landless laborers, affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. Our findings suggest that deep housing policy interventions can have long-lasting effects on population distribution.
No. 21-07:
William Quinn and John D. Turner
'Riding the Bubble or Taken for a Ride? Investors in the British Bicycle Mania'
November 2021
Clientele-based theories explaining asset price bubbles are often difficult to test because the identities of investors cannot easily be tracked over time. This paper tests these theories using a hand-collected sample of 12,000 investors during an asset price reversal in the shares of British bicycle companies between 1895 and 1900. We find that informed investors reduced their holdings substantially during the crash, suggesting that they were riding the bubble. Those who performed worst were not typically the least informed groups, but gentlemen living near a stock exchange, who had the most time, money, and opportunity to engage in speculation.
William Quinn and John D. Turner
'Riding the Bubble or Taken for a Ride? Investors in the British Bicycle Mania'
November 2021
Clientele-based theories explaining asset price bubbles are often difficult to test because the identities of investors cannot easily be tracked over time. This paper tests these theories using a hand-collected sample of 12,000 investors during an asset price reversal in the shares of British bicycle companies between 1895 and 1900. We find that informed investors reduced their holdings substantially during the crash, suggesting that they were riding the bubble. Those who performed worst were not typically the least informed groups, but gentlemen living near a stock exchange, who had the most time, money, and opportunity to engage in speculation.
No. 21-06:
Christopher L. Colvin, Eoin McLaughlin, and Kyle J. J. Richmond
'Cohort component population estimates for Ireland, 1911-1920: A new county-level dataset for use in historical demography'
June 2021
This is a dataset of vital statistics and cohort component population estimates at a spatially-disaggregated level for the island of Ireland for the period 1911-1920. The raw data were digitised by the authors using official UK government statistics. The population estimates were then derived by the cohort component method. These data provide novel intercensal population estimates at the county level that will be beneficial for researchers working in historical demography, as well as in economic and social history. The data provided can be readily reused and extended by other researchers to produce further series and indicators. An example application of the data in this manner can be seen in Colvin and McLaughlin (2021), which combines the population estimates discussed here with mortality statistics from the Spanish flu pandemic in order to demonstrate how demographic composition affects the interpretation of data on public health crises.
Christopher L. Colvin, Eoin McLaughlin, and Kyle J. J. Richmond
'Cohort component population estimates for Ireland, 1911-1920: A new county-level dataset for use in historical demography'
June 2021
This is a dataset of vital statistics and cohort component population estimates at a spatially-disaggregated level for the island of Ireland for the period 1911-1920. The raw data were digitised by the authors using official UK government statistics. The population estimates were then derived by the cohort component method. These data provide novel intercensal population estimates at the county level that will be beneficial for researchers working in historical demography, as well as in economic and social history. The data provided can be readily reused and extended by other researchers to produce further series and indicators. An example application of the data in this manner can be seen in Colvin and McLaughlin (2021), which combines the population estimates discussed here with mortality statistics from the Spanish flu pandemic in order to demonstrate how demographic composition affects the interpretation of data on public health crises.
No. 21-05:
Christie Swanepoel, and Philip T. Fliers
'The Fuel of Unparalleled Recovery: Monetary Policy in South Africa between 1925 and 1936'
June 2021
The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa’s exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa’s exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB’s policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country’s exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation, was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa’s unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation, however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank’s control over the gold markets were of paramount importance.
Christie Swanepoel, and Philip T. Fliers
'The Fuel of Unparalleled Recovery: Monetary Policy in South Africa between 1925 and 1936'
June 2021
The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa’s exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa’s exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB’s policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country’s exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation, was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa’s unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation, however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank’s control over the gold markets were of paramount importance.
No. 21-04:
Ann M. Carlos, Donna Feir, and Angela Redish
'Indigenous Nations and the Development of the US Economy: Land, Resources, and Dispossession'
June 2021
Abundant land and strong property rights are conventionally viewed as key factors underpinning US economic development success. This view relies on the “Pristine Myth” of an empty undeveloped land. But the abundant land of North America was already made productive and was the recognized territory of sovereign Indigenous Nations. We demonstrate that the development of strong property rights for European/American settlers was mirrored by the attenuation and increasing disregard of Indigenous property rights and that the dearth of discussion of the dispossession of Indigenous nations results in a misunderstanding of some of the core themes of US economic history.
Ann M. Carlos, Donna Feir, and Angela Redish
'Indigenous Nations and the Development of the US Economy: Land, Resources, and Dispossession'
June 2021
Abundant land and strong property rights are conventionally viewed as key factors underpinning US economic development success. This view relies on the “Pristine Myth” of an empty undeveloped land. But the abundant land of North America was already made productive and was the recognized territory of sovereign Indigenous Nations. We demonstrate that the development of strong property rights for European/American settlers was mirrored by the attenuation and increasing disregard of Indigenous property rights and that the dearth of discussion of the dispossession of Indigenous nations results in a misunderstanding of some of the core themes of US economic history.