QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, current and former Research Students, and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin, for more information about the series. Working papers should be treated as pre-prints. These are completed versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication. Distribution as part of this series does not preclude subsequent publication in an academic journal.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2025
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2024
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2023
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2022
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2021
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2020
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2019
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2018
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2017
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2016
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2015
- QUCEH Working Papers: 2014
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 25-06:
Aditi Sahasrabuddhe and Jack Seddon
The Perils of Technocratic Power: Central Bank Discretion and the End of Bretton Woods Revisited
April 2025
Recent crises have cast doubt on the legitimacy of technocratic power, yet its role in global economic governance remains poorly understood. Revisiting the collapse of Bretton Woods, we propose a dynamic theory of global monetary governance to explain how expanding central bank discretion can destabilize systems. While most studies attribute the postwar system’s failure to geopolitical struggles, institutional weaknesses, or shifting economic ideas, they overlook the policies designed to manage and stabilize it. Drawing on historical institutionalism, we show how coordination tensions between rule-bound and discretionary policymakers—and the mutually reinforcing adaptation risks they faced—produced responses that appeared stabilizing in the short term but ultimately eroded long-run stability. New archival evidence from the IMF, BIS, and OECD reveals how tools like the London Gold Pool and currency swap lines extended central bank power, concealed macroeconomic imbalances, and crowded out political momentum for structural reform. As technocratic authority grew misaligned with political support and functional economic adjustment, it became a liability. This challenges the dominant view that technocratic actors are inherently superior in managing global economic policy.
Aditi Sahasrabuddhe and Jack Seddon
The Perils of Technocratic Power: Central Bank Discretion and the End of Bretton Woods Revisited
April 2025
Recent crises have cast doubt on the legitimacy of technocratic power, yet its role in global economic governance remains poorly understood. Revisiting the collapse of Bretton Woods, we propose a dynamic theory of global monetary governance to explain how expanding central bank discretion can destabilize systems. While most studies attribute the postwar system’s failure to geopolitical struggles, institutional weaknesses, or shifting economic ideas, they overlook the policies designed to manage and stabilize it. Drawing on historical institutionalism, we show how coordination tensions between rule-bound and discretionary policymakers—and the mutually reinforcing adaptation risks they faced—produced responses that appeared stabilizing in the short term but ultimately eroded long-run stability. New archival evidence from the IMF, BIS, and OECD reveals how tools like the London Gold Pool and currency swap lines extended central bank power, concealed macroeconomic imbalances, and crowded out political momentum for structural reform. As technocratic authority grew misaligned with political support and functional economic adjustment, it became a liability. This challenges the dominant view that technocratic actors are inherently superior in managing global economic policy.
No. 25-05:
Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart
Have We Under-Estimated Inflation Persistence Before WW1? US and International Evidence
April 2025
We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique.
Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart
Have We Under-Estimated Inflation Persistence Before WW1? US and International Evidence
April 2025
We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique.
No. 25-04:
Homer Wagenaar and Christopher L. Colvin
Patently Peculiar: Patents and Innovation in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands
April 2025
We examine the accessibility and functioning of the patent system in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, a state that existed between 1815 and 1830. The country’s patent law combined an examination process with significant government discretion over a patent’s duration and cost. Using our hand-collected database of all patent applications—granted, withdrawn, and rejected—we analyse the determinants of success, and the conditions imposed on applicants by the system’s administrators. We find that discretion optimised patent terms rather than causing bias. The system was accessible despite high fees. Our analysis suggests that social class, skills, and market orientation drove the demand for patents. Our research contributes to understanding the history of European patent institutions by adding high-quality patent data for the second economy in the world to experience an Industrial Revolution.
Homer Wagenaar and Christopher L. Colvin
Patently Peculiar: Patents and Innovation in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands
April 2025
We examine the accessibility and functioning of the patent system in the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, a state that existed between 1815 and 1830. The country’s patent law combined an examination process with significant government discretion over a patent’s duration and cost. Using our hand-collected database of all patent applications—granted, withdrawn, and rejected—we analyse the determinants of success, and the conditions imposed on applicants by the system’s administrators. We find that discretion optimised patent terms rather than causing bias. The system was accessible despite high fees. Our analysis suggests that social class, skills, and market orientation drove the demand for patents. Our research contributes to understanding the history of European patent institutions by adding high-quality patent data for the second economy in the world to experience an Industrial Revolution.
No. 25-03:
Homer Wagenaar
The Patent System of the Netherlands in a Belgian Mirror, 1817-1869
April 2025
This paper is an institutional study of the patent systems of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and its successor states Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. The patent law of 1817 gave the state wide discretion to accept or refuse patents and to customise their duration, fees, and terms on a case-by-case basis. Through an in-depth reconstruction of the patent system’s administrative process, I demonstrate (1) how this system developed informal rules of procedure in its initial years, and (2) how the law after Belgium’s independence from 1830 fared differently in each successor state. While in Belgium the patent system became widely used and increasingly codified, culminating in an 1850s reform, in the Netherlands the neglect of the patent system led in 1869 to its abolition.
Homer Wagenaar
The Patent System of the Netherlands in a Belgian Mirror, 1817-1869
April 2025
This paper is an institutional study of the patent systems of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and its successor states Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. The patent law of 1817 gave the state wide discretion to accept or refuse patents and to customise their duration, fees, and terms on a case-by-case basis. Through an in-depth reconstruction of the patent system’s administrative process, I demonstrate (1) how this system developed informal rules of procedure in its initial years, and (2) how the law after Belgium’s independence from 1830 fared differently in each successor state. While in Belgium the patent system became widely used and increasingly codified, culminating in an 1850s reform, in the Netherlands the neglect of the patent system led in 1869 to its abolition.
No. 25-02:
Darragh McLaughlin, Eoin McLaughlin and Seán Kenny
Taking a Punt: Monetary Experimentation and the Irish Macroeconomic Crisis of 1955-56
February 2025
The 1955-56 macroeconomic crisis is a central event in modern Irish history. Yet, despite this centrality, its causes are not clearly understood. In 1955-6, Ireland, which had previously followed British interest rates in lockstep as part of its fixed exchange with the latter, briefly experimented with independent monetary policy. Our contribution is twofold. First, we highlight how the Irish response was based on a misunderstanding of a run on Sterling in 1955. Second, we focus on a series of monetary shocks taking place from January 1955 to February 1956. We construct yields for Irish and UK public debt, as well as bank share indices at a daily frequency (1954-6), to test whether the shock was transmitted via financial markets. Employing an event study and testing for structural breaks, we explore the institutional framework through which the mechanisms of the crisis occurred. We find that expansionary monetary policy can only be maintained with sufficient reserves, merely postponing the inevitability of capital flight which is observed in the banking sector.
Darragh McLaughlin, Eoin McLaughlin and Seán Kenny
Taking a Punt: Monetary Experimentation and the Irish Macroeconomic Crisis of 1955-56
February 2025
The 1955-56 macroeconomic crisis is a central event in modern Irish history. Yet, despite this centrality, its causes are not clearly understood. In 1955-6, Ireland, which had previously followed British interest rates in lockstep as part of its fixed exchange with the latter, briefly experimented with independent monetary policy. Our contribution is twofold. First, we highlight how the Irish response was based on a misunderstanding of a run on Sterling in 1955. Second, we focus on a series of monetary shocks taking place from January 1955 to February 1956. We construct yields for Irish and UK public debt, as well as bank share indices at a daily frequency (1954-6), to test whether the shock was transmitted via financial markets. Employing an event study and testing for structural breaks, we explore the institutional framework through which the mechanisms of the crisis occurred. We find that expansionary monetary policy can only be maintained with sufficient reserves, merely postponing the inevitability of capital flight which is observed in the banking sector.
No. 25-01:
Stephen D. Billington, Christopher L. Colvin and Christopher Coyle
Financing Innovation: The Role of Patent Examination
January 2025
How does patent examination influence access to finance for innovative firms? We exploit a reform to the UK’s patent system that introduced substantive examination to the patent application process, improving the information available to potential investors on the value of firms’ patents. Using a newly compiled firm-level dataset of exchange-listed corporations, we find that firms holding examined patents were able to borrow more, reflecting improved access to capital markets, and leading to firm growth. Our results highlight the role of patent examination in reducing information asymmetries, enhancing the signalling value of patents, and mitigating financial barriers to innovation.
Stephen D. Billington, Christopher L. Colvin and Christopher Coyle
Financing Innovation: The Role of Patent Examination
January 2025
How does patent examination influence access to finance for innovative firms? We exploit a reform to the UK’s patent system that introduced substantive examination to the patent application process, improving the information available to potential investors on the value of firms’ patents. Using a newly compiled firm-level dataset of exchange-listed corporations, we find that firms holding examined patents were able to borrow more, reflecting improved access to capital markets, and leading to firm growth. Our results highlight the role of patent examination in reducing information asymmetries, enhancing the signalling value of patents, and mitigating financial barriers to innovation.
No. 24-09:
Tiarnán Heaney
From Pensions to Pupils? Schooling, Resource Constraints and Old Age Pensions in Ireland 1901-11
October 2024
A large literature argues that resource constraints inhibit human capital accumulation. We test this hypothesis using the introduction of the Old Age Pension in Ireland in 1908, evaluating its spillover on school enrolments within multigenerational households. Exploiting the OAP’s age-based and means-test criteria, we identify the causal effect of the cash transfer on enrolments for children aged 14 to 16 using data from the 1901 and 1911 Censuses of Ireland. The OAP increased the school enrolments of the poorest children by 8 per cent, while no effect is detected for wealthier households. This suggests that when poverty constrains schooling, unconditional cash transfers amplify a household’s demand for education by reducing the opportunity costs of schooling.
Tiarnán Heaney
From Pensions to Pupils? Schooling, Resource Constraints and Old Age Pensions in Ireland 1901-11
October 2024
A large literature argues that resource constraints inhibit human capital accumulation. We test this hypothesis using the introduction of the Old Age Pension in Ireland in 1908, evaluating its spillover on school enrolments within multigenerational households. Exploiting the OAP’s age-based and means-test criteria, we identify the causal effect of the cash transfer on enrolments for children aged 14 to 16 using data from the 1901 and 1911 Censuses of Ireland. The OAP increased the school enrolments of the poorest children by 8 per cent, while no effect is detected for wealthier households. This suggests that when poverty constrains schooling, unconditional cash transfers amplify a household’s demand for education by reducing the opportunity costs of schooling.
No. 24-08:
Daniel Kaufmann and Rebecca Stuart
'Private Money and Money Market Integration: The Role of Payments Infrastructure in 19th Century Switzerland
September 2024
Using newly collected discount rate data for six Swiss cities, we find no evidence of increasing integration during a 30-year period of lightly regulated free banking. We attribute this to two structural issues: banks had incentives to protect their local monopolies, and the inherent instability of free banking meant that there was always a risk (which varied across banks) of a bank run. We use a novel counterfactual to show that these risks increased discount rate dispersion, and argue that as a result, public regulation of payments infrastructure was necessary for money market integration.
Daniel Kaufmann and Rebecca Stuart
'Private Money and Money Market Integration: The Role of Payments Infrastructure in 19th Century Switzerland
September 2024
Using newly collected discount rate data for six Swiss cities, we find no evidence of increasing integration during a 30-year period of lightly regulated free banking. We attribute this to two structural issues: banks had incentives to protect their local monopolies, and the inherent instability of free banking meant that there was always a risk (which varied across banks) of a bank run. We use a novel counterfactual to show that these risks increased discount rate dispersion, and argue that as a result, public regulation of payments infrastructure was necessary for money market integration.
No. 24-07:
Alan Fernihough, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Mind Your Language: Explaining the Retreat of the Irish Language Frontier'
July 2024
Why do we choose one language over another? Rival views see language frontiers as exogenous, driven by policy, or endogenous, determined by social, cultural and economic forces. We study language loss in nineteenth-century Ireland's bilingual society using individual-level data from the 1901 census. Our analysis highlights the intergenerational influence of the education received by a community’s elders on subsequent generations’ language use. This is consistent with an endogenous demand for English driving language choice because the elder generation's literacy was acquired by attending privately financed voluntary primary schools in a period that predates state-funded compulsory schooling.
Alan Fernihough, Christopher L. Colvin and Eoin McLaughlin
'Mind Your Language: Explaining the Retreat of the Irish Language Frontier'
July 2024
Why do we choose one language over another? Rival views see language frontiers as exogenous, driven by policy, or endogenous, determined by social, cultural and economic forces. We study language loss in nineteenth-century Ireland's bilingual society using individual-level data from the 1901 census. Our analysis highlights the intergenerational influence of the education received by a community’s elders on subsequent generations’ language use. This is consistent with an endogenous demand for English driving language choice because the elder generation's literacy was acquired by attending privately financed voluntary primary schools in a period that predates state-funded compulsory schooling.
No. 24-06:
Alan de Bromhead and Seán Kenny
'Irish Regional GDP Since Independence'
June 2024
This paper constructs the first estimates of Irish regional GDP over the twentieth century and traces the relative economic performance of Ireland’s regions since independence. Using an array of data sources available at a county level, output in Agriculture, Industry and Services in benchmark census years is estimated. Applying a variety of alternative measures, we find a reduction in regional inequality over the period that is similar to the broader European pattern. Regional convergence over the period 1926-1991 was driven by both within-sector convergence in productivity and structural change. Our paper helps to understand the regional dimensions to Irish economic development from the birth of a newly independent state up to the eve of Ireland's growth 'miracle' in the 1990s, when the first official efforts were initiated to construct these figures. Finally, we connect our estimates to these official figures to examine GDP at the level of NUTS regions up to 2021.
Alan de Bromhead and Seán Kenny
'Irish Regional GDP Since Independence'
June 2024
This paper constructs the first estimates of Irish regional GDP over the twentieth century and traces the relative economic performance of Ireland’s regions since independence. Using an array of data sources available at a county level, output in Agriculture, Industry and Services in benchmark census years is estimated. Applying a variety of alternative measures, we find a reduction in regional inequality over the period that is similar to the broader European pattern. Regional convergence over the period 1926-1991 was driven by both within-sector convergence in productivity and structural change. Our paper helps to understand the regional dimensions to Irish economic development from the birth of a newly independent state up to the eve of Ireland's growth 'miracle' in the 1990s, when the first official efforts were initiated to construct these figures. Finally, we connect our estimates to these official figures to examine GDP at the level of NUTS regions up to 2021.
No. 24-05:
Seán Kenny
'Irish GDP Since Independence'
May 2024
This paper constructs annual GDP estimates for Ireland (1924-47) to join the first complete official aggregates. The new series is deployed to revisit Ireland’s economic performance in the post-independence decades. Ireland’s economy grew at 1.5 per cent per annum and average living standards improved by 40 per cent. The bulk of this was due to labour productivity improvements stemming from workers moving out of agriculture. Starting in 1924 captures the civil war recovery and paints a more positive picture of the 1920s, while the traditional narrative of a “mild” Great Depression is upheld. The 1930s recovery was aided by strong contributions from services and industry, while the economy contracted by 7 per cent during the early “Emergency”. Though supporting O’Rourke’s view that Irish growth was not unique against European peers, the new data provide evidence of stronger convergence against UK regions. Industry contributed most to growth during the period, growing at 3.6 per cent per annum. The equivalent rate for services was 1.3 per cent, though it contributed substantially during recovery periods. Agricultural output hardly changed due to its post-war contraction. This paper joins a growing number of studies that suggest that Ireland was poorer at independence than previously believed.
Seán Kenny
'Irish GDP Since Independence'
May 2024
This paper constructs annual GDP estimates for Ireland (1924-47) to join the first complete official aggregates. The new series is deployed to revisit Ireland’s economic performance in the post-independence decades. Ireland’s economy grew at 1.5 per cent per annum and average living standards improved by 40 per cent. The bulk of this was due to labour productivity improvements stemming from workers moving out of agriculture. Starting in 1924 captures the civil war recovery and paints a more positive picture of the 1920s, while the traditional narrative of a “mild” Great Depression is upheld. The 1930s recovery was aided by strong contributions from services and industry, while the economy contracted by 7 per cent during the early “Emergency”. Though supporting O’Rourke’s view that Irish growth was not unique against European peers, the new data provide evidence of stronger convergence against UK regions. Industry contributed most to growth during the period, growing at 3.6 per cent per annum. The equivalent rate for services was 1.3 per cent, though it contributed substantially during recovery periods. Agricultural output hardly changed due to its post-war contraction. This paper joins a growing number of studies that suggest that Ireland was poorer at independence than previously believed.
No. 24-04:
Ann M. Carlos, Erik Green, Calumet Links and Angela Redish
'Early-Modern Globalization and the Extent of Indigenous Agency: Trade, Commodities, and Ecology'
May 2024
This paper examines the responses of Indigenous nations and European companies to new trading opportunities: Cree nations and the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC), and Khoe nations and the Dutch East India Company (VOC). This case study is important because of the disparate outcomes: within a few decades the Cree standard of living had increased, and Khoe had lost land and cattle. Standard histories begin with the establishment of trading posts but this elides the decades of prior intermittent contact which played an important role in the disparate outcomes in the two regions. The paper emphasizes the significance of Indigenous agency in trade.
Ann M. Carlos, Erik Green, Calumet Links and Angela Redish
'Early-Modern Globalization and the Extent of Indigenous Agency: Trade, Commodities, and Ecology'
May 2024
This paper examines the responses of Indigenous nations and European companies to new trading opportunities: Cree nations and the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC), and Khoe nations and the Dutch East India Company (VOC). This case study is important because of the disparate outcomes: within a few decades the Cree standard of living had increased, and Khoe had lost land and cattle. Standard histories begin with the establishment of trading posts but this elides the decades of prior intermittent contact which played an important role in the disparate outcomes in the two regions. The paper emphasizes the significance of Indigenous agency in trade.
No. 24-03:
Lucia Pozzi, Francesco Scalone, Michail Rafakis and Liam Kennedy
'Religious Affiliation and Child Mortality in Ireland: A Country-Wide Analysis based on the 1911 Census'
February 2024
Previous studies have identified a link between religious affiliation and child mortality, yet the underlying factors that contributed to this association are not fully understood. This study investigates how religious affiliation might have influenced child mortality in early 20th- century Ireland, having controlled for socio-economic status, literacy, and place of residence at both individual and contextual levels. We utilize the 1911 IPUMS Irish census, indirect techniques, and regression analysis to examine the role of religious affiliation on child mortality. We conduct various OLS regressions, controlling for demographic factors and socioeconomic conditions at both individual and contextual levels.
Lucia Pozzi, Francesco Scalone, Michail Rafakis and Liam Kennedy
'Religious Affiliation and Child Mortality in Ireland: A Country-Wide Analysis based on the 1911 Census'
February 2024
Previous studies have identified a link between religious affiliation and child mortality, yet the underlying factors that contributed to this association are not fully understood. This study investigates how religious affiliation might have influenced child mortality in early 20th- century Ireland, having controlled for socio-economic status, literacy, and place of residence at both individual and contextual levels. We utilize the 1911 IPUMS Irish census, indirect techniques, and regression analysis to examine the role of religious affiliation on child mortality. We conduct various OLS regressions, controlling for demographic factors and socioeconomic conditions at both individual and contextual levels.