QUCEH Working Paper Series
Working papers by QUCEH Research Associates, Research Affiliates, Research Students and International Advisory Board Members are distributed from this page. They are also available through Econstor, a RePEc-compatible Open Access server which provides a platform for the free distribution of academic literature in economics. Please contact the editor, Chris Colvin, for more information about the series. Note that working papers should be treated as pre-prints, versions of scientific papers that precede formal peer review and publication.
Full Archive of the QUCEH Working Paper Series:
Abstracts of Recent QUCEH Working Papers:
No. 22-08:
Graeme Acheson, Michael Aldous and William Quinn
'The Anatomy of a Bubble Company: The London Assurance in 1720'
June 2022
Research on the financial events of 1720 in Britain has overwhelmingly focused on the South Sea Company, but price movements were much more dramatic in the shares of the newly incorporated London Assurance (LA) Company. This paper uses unique archival material on the London Assurance to address three important debates around the 1720 bubble. First, it examines competing claims around the bubble’s price dynamics, finding that the largest price movements were driven by changes in the market structure for LA shares rather than by news about fundamentals. Second, it explores how the shareholder base changed during the bubble, finding that informed insiders were more likely to exit for a profit at the peak of the bubble. Finally, an examination of LA shareholder behaviour up to 1737 suggests that the bubble caused a loss of shareholder expertise, with detrimental consequences for the Company’s governance. These results demonstrate how a bubble in the shares of a newly created company can lead to an exodus of informed investors, damaging the company’s long-term prospects.
Graeme Acheson, Michael Aldous and William Quinn
'The Anatomy of a Bubble Company: The London Assurance in 1720'
June 2022
Research on the financial events of 1720 in Britain has overwhelmingly focused on the South Sea Company, but price movements were much more dramatic in the shares of the newly incorporated London Assurance (LA) Company. This paper uses unique archival material on the London Assurance to address three important debates around the 1720 bubble. First, it examines competing claims around the bubble’s price dynamics, finding that the largest price movements were driven by changes in the market structure for LA shares rather than by news about fundamentals. Second, it explores how the shareholder base changed during the bubble, finding that informed insiders were more likely to exit for a profit at the peak of the bubble. Finally, an examination of LA shareholder behaviour up to 1737 suggests that the bubble caused a loss of shareholder expertise, with detrimental consequences for the Company’s governance. These results demonstrate how a bubble in the shares of a newly created company can lead to an exodus of informed investors, damaging the company’s long-term prospects.
No. 22-07:
Eoin McLaughlin, Christopher L. Colvin and Stuart Henderson
'Demography and Age Heaping: Solving Ireland’s post-Famine Digit Preference Puzzle'
May 2022
Age heaping in Ireland worsened in the years after the Great Irish Famine, even as other measures of educational attainment improved. We show how demography can account for this seemingly conflicting pattern. Specifically, we argue that a greater propensity to emigrate typified the youngest segment (23–32-year-olds) used in conventional indices of digit preference. Quantification of heaping must be interpreted in light of an older underlying population which is more likely to heap. We propose how digit preference indices can adjust for such demographic change by introducing age standardisation.
Eoin McLaughlin, Christopher L. Colvin and Stuart Henderson
'Demography and Age Heaping: Solving Ireland’s post-Famine Digit Preference Puzzle'
May 2022
Age heaping in Ireland worsened in the years after the Great Irish Famine, even as other measures of educational attainment improved. We show how demography can account for this seemingly conflicting pattern. Specifically, we argue that a greater propensity to emigrate typified the youngest segment (23–32-year-olds) used in conventional indices of digit preference. Quantification of heaping must be interpreted in light of an older underlying population which is more likely to heap. We propose how digit preference indices can adjust for such demographic change by introducing age standardisation.
No. 22-06:
Paul Winfree
'The Effect of Propaganda on Elections: Evidence from the Post-Reconstruction South'
April 2022
Newspapers in the post-Reconstruction South disseminated propaganda accusing Black voters of excessive public corruption. This paper analyzes new data showing that propaganda influenced election outcomes by weakening biracial political coalitions that challenged the Democratic Party immediately before the adoption of new constitutions legally disenfranchising Black voters. These new constitutions reinforced Democratic control of Southern governments that lasted decades into the twentieth century. Specifically, I find evidence that insinuations of public corruption motivated voters to the polls and split the support for biracial coalitions that may have challenged control of the Democratic Party. I also find evidence that large changes in exposure to propaganda were needed to influence election outcomes when voters were routinely exposed to propaganda.
Paul Winfree
'The Effect of Propaganda on Elections: Evidence from the Post-Reconstruction South'
April 2022
Newspapers in the post-Reconstruction South disseminated propaganda accusing Black voters of excessive public corruption. This paper analyzes new data showing that propaganda influenced election outcomes by weakening biracial political coalitions that challenged the Democratic Party immediately before the adoption of new constitutions legally disenfranchising Black voters. These new constitutions reinforced Democratic control of Southern governments that lasted decades into the twentieth century. Specifically, I find evidence that insinuations of public corruption motivated voters to the polls and split the support for biracial coalitions that may have challenged control of the Democratic Party. I also find evidence that large changes in exposure to propaganda were needed to influence election outcomes when voters were routinely exposed to propaganda.
No. 22-05:
Seán Kenny and Eoin McLaughlin
'Political Economy of Secession: Lessons from the Early Years of the Irish Free State'
April 2022
We apply insights from the political economy of secession to analyse the early years of the Irish Free State (IFS). The IFS was fortuitous in a debt settlement that enabled it to begin its existence debt free, whilst also receiving financial assistance to quell civil unrest. Yet the IFS was unable to continue to provide the welfare spending inherited from the old regime thereby exacerbating inequality. The IFS also maintained a sterling peg, which led to a milder experience of the depression era. Ultimately however, the benefits of independence were not forthcoming in the early years of the IFS.
Seán Kenny and Eoin McLaughlin
'Political Economy of Secession: Lessons from the Early Years of the Irish Free State'
April 2022
We apply insights from the political economy of secession to analyse the early years of the Irish Free State (IFS). The IFS was fortuitous in a debt settlement that enabled it to begin its existence debt free, whilst also receiving financial assistance to quell civil unrest. Yet the IFS was unable to continue to provide the welfare spending inherited from the old regime thereby exacerbating inequality. The IFS also maintained a sterling peg, which led to a milder experience of the depression era. Ultimately however, the benefits of independence were not forthcoming in the early years of the IFS.
No. 22-04:
Liam Kennedy and Donald MacRaild
'Perspectives on the Great Irish Famine'
April 2022
This overview of the Great Irish Famine is unfolded in terms of the three major phases of British government policy. The understanding of poverty underlying the paper is in terms of diet, not income per capita, housing or literacy, or any of the other more conventional measures in use by historians of the Famine. The claim is that reliance on a diet consisting almost exclusively of the cheapest foodstuff (potatoes) is both the definition of and the principal measure of poverty in pre-Famine Irish society. There is some emphasis on class conflict, both in its overt and its latent forms, as a constraint on the redistribution of income and food in the face of a massive crisis. A.K. Sen’s entitlements thesis on the causes of famine is held to have limited usefulness for the study of the Irish Famine, and there is a renewed emphasis on the absolute shortfall in domestic food production (‘food availability decline’) in the later 1840s. Ever so briefly, attention is drawn to lives saved as well as lives lost.
Liam Kennedy and Donald MacRaild
'Perspectives on the Great Irish Famine'
April 2022
This overview of the Great Irish Famine is unfolded in terms of the three major phases of British government policy. The understanding of poverty underlying the paper is in terms of diet, not income per capita, housing or literacy, or any of the other more conventional measures in use by historians of the Famine. The claim is that reliance on a diet consisting almost exclusively of the cheapest foodstuff (potatoes) is both the definition of and the principal measure of poverty in pre-Famine Irish society. There is some emphasis on class conflict, both in its overt and its latent forms, as a constraint on the redistribution of income and food in the face of a massive crisis. A.K. Sen’s entitlements thesis on the causes of famine is held to have limited usefulness for the study of the Irish Famine, and there is a renewed emphasis on the absolute shortfall in domestic food production (‘food availability decline’) in the later 1840s. Ever so briefly, attention is drawn to lives saved as well as lives lost.
No. 22-03:
Liam Kennedy
'Famine as Genocide? Ukraine and Ireland'
April 2022
The Great Irish Famine, 1846-50, and the Great Ukrainian Famine, 1932-33 are searing episodes in the history of the two countries. On some estimates, the relative intensity of famine in the two societies was broadly the same, with famine conditions claiming the lives of one-in-eight of the population. But on closer examination it is the dissimilarities between the two episodes that dominate. The politics and ideology shaping reaction to the emerging catastrophes in the two societies were hugely contrasting. The intent of policy in the Irish case, however inadequate some of the relief measures, was to save lives. Suspicion of the peasantry (not only in Ukraine), the extraction of grain surpluses and the unleashing of state terror against “class enemies” took precedence over saving lives in the Soviet handling of the Ukrainian famine. Paradoxically, it is the collective memory of famine and its politicisation that brings the Irish and Ukrainian calamities into closer relationship with each other.
Liam Kennedy
'Famine as Genocide? Ukraine and Ireland'
April 2022
The Great Irish Famine, 1846-50, and the Great Ukrainian Famine, 1932-33 are searing episodes in the history of the two countries. On some estimates, the relative intensity of famine in the two societies was broadly the same, with famine conditions claiming the lives of one-in-eight of the population. But on closer examination it is the dissimilarities between the two episodes that dominate. The politics and ideology shaping reaction to the emerging catastrophes in the two societies were hugely contrasting. The intent of policy in the Irish case, however inadequate some of the relief measures, was to save lives. Suspicion of the peasantry (not only in Ukraine), the extraction of grain surpluses and the unleashing of state terror against “class enemies” took precedence over saving lives in the Soviet handling of the Ukrainian famine. Paradoxically, it is the collective memory of famine and its politicisation that brings the Irish and Ukrainian calamities into closer relationship with each other.
No. 22-02:
Graziella Bertocchi, Arcangelo Dimico, and Gian Luca Tedeschi
'Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes towards Citizenship'
February 2022
We analyze the relationship between natives’ attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citizenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual’s ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors—conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs—that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade.
Graziella Bertocchi, Arcangelo Dimico, and Gian Luca Tedeschi
'Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes towards Citizenship'
February 2022
We analyze the relationship between natives’ attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citizenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual’s ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors—conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs—that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade.
No. 22-01:
R. J. C. Adams, Gareth Campbell, Christopher Coyle, and John D. Turner
'The Wee Divergence: Business Creation and Political Turmoil in Ireland before 1900'
January 2022
What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising from the Home Rule movement resulted in reduced entrepreneurial activity and business investment. We find that increased political instability led to a significant divergence of business creation between Scotland and Ireland. Our findings suggest that the effects of political instability on entrepreneurship were most acute in the parts of Ireland that were most concerned by potential changes.
R. J. C. Adams, Gareth Campbell, Christopher Coyle, and John D. Turner
'The Wee Divergence: Business Creation and Political Turmoil in Ireland before 1900'
January 2022
What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising from the Home Rule movement resulted in reduced entrepreneurial activity and business investment. We find that increased political instability led to a significant divergence of business creation between Scotland and Ireland. Our findings suggest that the effects of political instability on entrepreneurship were most acute in the parts of Ireland that were most concerned by potential changes.
No. 21-09:
Laura Wurm
'Strangling Speculation: The Effect of the 1903 Viennese Futures Trading Ban'
December 2021
How does futures trading affect spot price volatility? This paper uses a unique early-twentieth century natural experiment to test what happens when futures trading no longer exists. In 1903, futures trading in the Viennese grain market was banned. The permanency of this ban makes it ideal for studying its effect on volatility, using a difference-in-difference framework. Prices from Budapest, a market operating under similar conditions but unaffected by the ban, are used as a control. This paper finds increased spot price volatility and lower pricing accuracy because the information-transmission and risk-allocation functions of the futures market were no longer maintained.
Laura Wurm
'Strangling Speculation: The Effect of the 1903 Viennese Futures Trading Ban'
December 2021
How does futures trading affect spot price volatility? This paper uses a unique early-twentieth century natural experiment to test what happens when futures trading no longer exists. In 1903, futures trading in the Viennese grain market was banned. The permanency of this ban makes it ideal for studying its effect on volatility, using a difference-in-difference framework. Prices from Budapest, a market operating under similar conditions but unaffected by the ban, are used as a control. This paper finds increased spot price volatility and lower pricing accuracy because the information-transmission and risk-allocation functions of the futures market were no longer maintained.
No. 21-08:
Alan de Bromhead and Ronan C. Lyons
'Rooted to the Soil: The Impact of Social Housing on Population in Ireland since 1911'
November 2021
How does housing policy influence the distribution of population? We examine the impact of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme on the long-term dynamics of rural population, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883-1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing, which effectively halved rents for landless laborers, affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. Our findings suggest that deep housing policy interventions can have long-lasting effects on population distribution.
Alan de Bromhead and Ronan C. Lyons
'Rooted to the Soil: The Impact of Social Housing on Population in Ireland since 1911'
November 2021
How does housing policy influence the distribution of population? We examine the impact of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme on the long-term dynamics of rural population, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883-1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing, which effectively halved rents for landless laborers, affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. Our findings suggest that deep housing policy interventions can have long-lasting effects on population distribution.